Quarterback not a quick fix for teams
SAN JOSE, Calif. – Anyone who thinks the San Francisco 49ers can reverse their immediate fortunes with the first pick in today’s NFL draft needs to take another look at the record book. Even when a team strikes gold, it takes a while to shine.
In 1998, the Indianapolis Colts landed the impeccable Peyton Manning with the No. 1 pick. And the rifle-armed, whip-smart, ultra-polished quarterback took a team that had gone 3-13 the year before and led it to … another 3-13 finish.
Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie and had a passer rating of 71.2; Tim Rattay, the 49ers’ incumbent starter, had a rating of 78.1 last season.
Think the 49ers might be better off selecting an impact receiver? The last wide receiver to go No. 1 overall was Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. After he arrived, the New York Jets actually got worse, falling from 3-13 before Johnson to 1-15 in his first year.
The point is not to detract from the talents of those players. The point is that there is rarely a quick fix in the NFL, not even with the No.1 draft pick.
“It depends on how good the team is and what they did the year before,” said David Carr, the No. 1 pick in 2002 for the Houston Texans. “If a guy’s going to a team that has the first pick, obviously that team didn’t do what they wanted to do the year before.”
Perhaps that is why only four first-round quarterbacks in the history of the NFL have won Super Bowls for the teams that drafted them: Terry Bradshaw, Phil Simms, Jim McMahon and Troy Aikman. (John Elway doesn’t count because, technically, the Baltimore Colts drafted him No. 1).
“I’m sure that people are realistic and know that it’s going to take a little while for the guy to get going,” Carr said. “But, eventually, there are expectations for you to play well and stand up to where you got picked.”
Since 1984, only three teams that kept the No. 1 pick rebounded with a winning record in the season after drafting first.
Two of those teams had special circumstances. The New England Patriots were 8-8 in 1983, the year before selecting receiver Irving Fryar with the No. 1 pick, so their 9-7 record wasn’t far to go.
The 1991 Dallas Cowboys went from 7-9 to 11-5 after drafting defensive tackle Russell Maryland, but the improvement was actually fueled by first-round picks from previous years (Aikman and running back Emmitt Smith).
Only three No. 1s drafted since 1990 have played in Super Bowls for the team that selected them: Maryland, New England quarterback Drew Bledsoe and St. Louis Rams tackle Orlando Pace.
Carson Palmer, the player drafted first in 2003, understands the learning curve it takes before a player can make an impact in the NFL. Last year, in his first seven games as a starter, Palmer threw five touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. In the next six, he had 13 touchdown passes and eight picks.
“Confidence,” Palmer said in an interview with the Cincinnati Bengals’ Web site. “Just being in there. The experience. You can’t say enough about how much experience does for you. If you’ve never played (in the NFL) before, you don’t know. Can you fit a comeback (route) in here? Can you fit in a curl in between this coverage?
“Until you really do it, it’s a whole new world.”
Last year’s No. 1 pick, Eli Manning, started seven games, but he didn’t show the flash the New York Giants were hoping for until the season finale. He threw three touchdown passes and directed a last-minute drive as the Giants defeated the Cowboys 28-24. This spring, when reporters in New York asked him about the biggest difference heading into 2005, he said, “I don’t have the burden of people asking, ‘When will you get your first win?’ “
Manning, like most rookies, started the season on the bench. According to Stats, Inc., only 10 of the 255 players selected in the 2004 draft started all 16 games last season. That list includes two from the top 10: receiver Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals, No. 3) and cornerback Dunta Robinson (Houston, No. 10).
49ers Coach Mike Nolan indicated that his team is not in a position to be patient.
“You’d like for our No. 1 pick to compete for a starting job right away. Sure, that is what you’re looking for,” he said. “On that first day, for all of our picks, we’re looking for them to either start or compete for that position. After going 2-14, we are targeting players who can come in and help this football team right away.”