‘Targets’ can help fantasy leaguers at difficult task of selecting receivers
The playoffs begin in most fantasy leagues this week. So we’ll focus our “Buys” and “Sells” only on who we think will surprise and disappoint this coming weekend.
First, a correction. Last week, we relied on the NFL’s Website to verify the Ryan Fitzpatrick perfect 50 Wonderlic (IQ) score. But that turned out to be overstated by about 25 percent. So it’s no surprise he suffered the common fate of backups who thrive in emergency relief and then falter after being elevated to starter. Too much to think about in too short a time. Those invested in Rams must hope for Marc Bulger’s return, but should settle for Jamie Martin (though both could be out again Sunday at Minnesota).
Success at wide receiver usually separates contenders from fantasy league champions. But the position is notoriously hard to project. We’ve focused on targets (times thrown to) here. The idea is that fantasy success follows opportunity and, when drafting, you want to avoid players drafted much higher than where they ranked the year before in targets. Conversely, solid values often can be found among WRs ranked higher in targets than where they’re drafted.
Limiting ourselves to wide receivers who didn’t switch teams, here’s the list of guys who ranked much higher in 2004 targets than on 2005 fantasy draft cheatsheets (and thus guys this target theory expected would be values):
•Anquan Boldin (No. 2 in targets on a per-game basis), Eric Moulds (seventh), Randy McMichael (24th among all receivers), Jerry Porter (17th), Keyshawn Johnson (21st), T.J. Housmandzadeh (30th) and Amani Toomer (32nd). This group currently averages 52 catches and five TDs.
And here are the guys drafted much higher than 2004 target numbers warranted (expected busts):
•Hines Ward (31st), Reggie Wayne (27th), Nate Burleson (40th), Brandon Stokley (40th), Ashley Lelie (43rd). This group averages 40 catches and a little over three TDs (despite nine by Ward). Score one for the target theory.
Who are the 2005 target outliners we should flag for next year’s draft? Bargains will likely be found among:
• Muhsin Muhammad (10th), Derrick Mason (15th), Laveranues Coles (16th), Moulds (20th) and Antonio Bryant (25th). Beware Ward (20th), Terry Glenn (33rd) and Kevin Curtis (35th). (Target numbers courtesy of Stats LLC.)
Now, Week 14 recommendations.
Buy
Brad Johnson (QB, Vikings): The Rams have given up 24 passing TDs (second worst to the Titans) and Johnson has something going with the Robinsons (Marcus and Koren, now that Burleson has been benched).
Corey Dillon (RB, Patriots): The Bills’ run defense has allowed 4.7 per carry with 15 TDs and Dillon looks OK despite the rather pedestrian 16-carry outing vs. the Jets.
Andre Johnson (WR, Texans): As mentioned, the Titans have the worst pass defense in football and he’ll make a great No. 3 receiver this week.
Michael Bennett (RB, Vikings): Mewelde Moore has two sprained ankles and Ciatrick Fason a bruised knee. So Bennett is in line to get all the carries against the Rams’ run defense (4.7 per carry, 15 TDs allowed).
Sell
Edgerrin James (RB, Colts): Of course, you must start him. But manage expectations as the Jaguars have allowed four rushing TDs all year and the Colts scored just 10 points against them in Week 2.
Willie Parker (RB, Steelers): The stakes are too high now to start a back in the coach’s doghouse with fumbling problems. Plus, the Bears have also allowed only four rushing TDs (and just 11 TDs overall).