Rolling or retreating?

DETROIT — The world’s top automakers used one of the industry’s biggest stages in recent days to roll out their latest cars and trucks, at the same time pledging to use the fresh offerings to attract greater numbers of new customers and expand their businesses.

Here’s the rub: The math doesn’t add up.

Many analysts and top automotive executives say the U.S. market in 2005 is likely to be flat, maybe even down a bit, from a solid sales year in 2004. However, at this week’s media preview for the North American International Auto Show, a common theme among the automakers, particularly the Asians and Europeans, was growth.

But across-the-board growth is highly unlikely.

Many observers predict Asian brands such as Toyota and Honda will continue their assault on Detroit’s Big Three in 2005. Asked Monday if General Motors Corp., the world’s largest automaker, can grow its business in the United States this year after watching it fall 1.4 percent in 2004, Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said, “We can. We’re going to try.”

That said, much of the buzz around this week’s show was the continued onslaught of new products from Asian and European automakers, some of which will compete in categories dominated for years by American brands.

A bright spot for Detroit’s Big Three was good reviews for several important products introduced in Detroit.

Chris Ceraso, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston, in particular liked the looks of Saturn’s Aura “concept” car, which the GM brand says provides a peek at its upcoming replacement for the L-Series mid-size sedan. The car is expected to join Saturn’s revamped lineup in 2006, sharing the underpinnings of other midsize models such as the Pontiac G6 and Saab 9-3.