U.S.-Syria feud harks back to Saddam

CAIRO, Egypt – Ominously for Arab leaders, Syrian President Bashar Assad’s quarrel with the United States about his country’s military presence in Lebanon and cross-border infiltration into Iraq bears some resemblance to Saddam Hussein’s prewar tussle with Washington.

While the final outcome almost certainly will be different, the prospect of U.S. action has Arab rulers worried enough that they are pressing Assad to comply.

With the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq two years ago still fresh in their minds, Arab rulers such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi are seriously concerned about the Syria-Iraq analogy.

Those leaders may fear it could be their turn to face American pressure for change if Damascus refuses to comply and the Syrian regime collapses under political pressure and the threat of U.S. military action.

U.S. success in forcing Syria to withdraw from Lebanon would expand Washington’s sphere of influence in the Middle East – something with troubling implications for Arab leaders, also worried that any U.S. or Israeli airstrikes or other American show of power could fuel domestic opposition to their rule by militant Muslim groups or pro-democracy activists.

Assad, 39, also apparently is worried about comparisons with Saddam. “Please send this message: I am not Saddam Hussein. I want to cooperate,” he told Time magazine in an interview published this week.

Nonetheless, similarities exist between the tight situation Saddam was in before the 2003 war and Assad’s precarious position now. Both have resisted calls for reform, zealously criticized U.S. policies, provided sanctuary to militant groups and taken hard-line stands against Israel.

Although a full-scale American invasion of Syria is highly unlikely, given how thinly stretched the U.S. military is, the United States now enjoys something it did not have when it invaded Iraq – support from Russia, France and Germany, all of which strongly opposed the Iraq war.

Enraged by the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last month in Beirut, the three European powers have signaled a major shift against Syria, a traditional Arab friend, joining calls for a complete Syrian pullout from Lebanon and an end to Damascus’ interference with its smaller neighbor.

Some experts say the policy shift may be part of a new U.S.-European understanding to combine what they see as Europe’s soft approach with American muscle. Others say the Europeans simply are fed up with Syria using them to fend off U.S. pressure to stamp out the infiltration of foreign fighters into Iraq and to end Syria’s alleged support for militant groups.

Whatever the reason, full Syrian compliance with Washington’s demands would hand the United States a victory in its drive for democracy in the Middle East after what the Bush administration sees as major successes in Iraq, where a landmark election was held Jan. 30, and in Palestinian areas, where Yasser Arafat’s death paved the way for the election of the moderate Mahmoud Abbas.

Regional powers and close U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt – which ordinarily are close Syrian allies – have taken the United States’ side and have called on Syria to pull out of Lebanon.

Syrian analyst Imad Fawzi Shueibi says the Saudi and Egyptian positions reflect a “new rationality” in the region, while another Syrian, writer and government critic Michel Kilo, says their call for Syria to withdraw has tipped the balance against Assad.