Al-Zarqawi a key to insurgency

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Messages on Internet Web sites reporting that militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had been wounded raise questions about the future of a disparate Iraqi insurgency driven in part by the power of his personality and mercurial strategy against U.S.-led forces.

Sometimes pictured as thin and other times as pudgy and bearded, al-Zarqawi is the face of the insurgent movement. If Internet postings are correct in suggesting al-Zarqawi has suffered a bullet wound to the lung, the resistance could lose its fiercest voice in trying to defeat Washington, D.C.’s plan for a new Iraq.

U.S. officials suggest al-Zarqawi’s passing would not break the insurgency, but could trigger a leadership struggle between al Qaeda-backed foreign fighters and Iraqi Sunni Muslims and others loyal to Saddam Hussein on the other. These factions reportedly are suspicious of one another, and uncertainty over a new leader could spur further dissension at a time of increased raids by U.S. and Iraqi forces on militant strongholds in Baghdad and western Iraq.

“It is difficult to find leaders like Zarqawi,” said Mohammed Askari, an Iraqi military analyst, adding the absence of such a leader could hurt the insurgency’s recruiting and fund raising. “Zarqawi is daring, elusive. He has an ability for maneuvering, evading risks, and he has this talent for sending effective messages to the public. … Who will come after him?”

If al-Zarqawi is “injured or killed, it will definitely weaken the insurgency,” said a spokesman for Iraq’s commandos called Wolf Brigade. He said the rise in car bombings is a sign of desperation by the rebels and the “fading away of the base for people like Zarqawi.”

It is difficult to ascertain when al-Zarqawi entered Iraq. Some Western intelligence reports contend he was in Baghdad while Saddam was in power.

Kurdish and American officials say that shortly before the war, al-Zarqawi traveled through northern Iraq and aided a group of radical Sunni Kurds that was injected with al Qaeda fighters after the U.S. bombing of Afghanistan in 2001.

Many in the Ansar Al Sunna Army did not want to give allegiance to al-Zarqawi, whom they viewed as a foreigner.

But a posting this week on Ansar’s Web site suggests that al-Zarqawi eventually won the whole group over.

“God chose him to be the needle in his enemy’s eyes,” according to the message. “He is the one who satisfied the Muslims by his operations against the Christian forces and their followers. … Ansar Al Sunna is asking God to heal (al-Zarqawi) in order that he continue his jihad and holy operations.”