Greatness all sounds the same
Thinking today about 2005 fantasy fortunes, I’m reminded of Tolstoy’s famous line about how happy families are all alike but unhappy families are unhappy in their own way.
In every league, the happy fantasy players own one of four players: Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander, Colts RB Edgerrin James or Chiefs RB Larry Johnson. There’s a path to fantasy glory without one of those guys, but it’s long and windy.
Are the unhappy owners unhappy for more varied reasons?
Perhaps they invested heavily in the Eagles Odd Couple of Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens. Maybe they banked on Packers WR Javon Walker just before he blew out his knee in Week 1. The possibilities are seemingly vast. But problems at QB and WR can be overcome. Any fantasy owner is certain to be crippled by burning a high first-round pick on a running back who turns from stud to dud, as have Priest Holmes (Chiefs), Julius Jones (Cowboys) and Willis McGahee (Bills).
Those who own Kevin Jones (Lions) are surely crying, “Hey, me too!” But Jones was tabbed in most leagues during the second round, which always features more busts than the Lingerie Museum at Frederick’s of Hollywood. Those other guys were supposed to be certain to excite. What happened?
Holmes we warned you all about. Again, being over age 30 at running back in the NFL means you have about a 70 percent chance of being ineffective or getting seriously hurt. But Holmes owners could have drafted Johnson, right? Any league that let the Holmes owner leisurely purchase Johnson insurance is far too gentlemanly. If you’re playing to win, throw some sharp elbows around on draft day.
Julius Jones has zero 100-yard games and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3. His ankle injury gave Bill Parcells the idea he was too fragile to sustain a heavy workload. Jones did have an injury history in college and was hurt for half his rookie year, so the writing was on the wall (though I ignored it, too).
While McGahee has four 100-yard games, he hasn’t scored since Week 6, well off his 19-TD pace in ‘04. He’s been victimized by an anemic Bills offense. But while it’s no surprise that J.P. Losman struggled, Kelly Holcomb burned McGahee owners by failing to pick up the pieces.
On to the recommendations. Remember, we told you to hold on to Houston WR Andre Johnson (12-159-1 Sunday) two weeks ago and won’t rehash.
Buy
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Rams): The Harvard alum’s hookup with Kevin Curtis in OT Sunday was the highest Wonderlic score ever on a TD connection. Fitzpatrick scored a perfect 50 and Curtis a 48 (the highest two scores in the NFL). If only they could share some IQ points with RB Steven Jackson, who keeps missing blitz pickups and costing St. Louis quarterbacks.
Brian Westbrook (RB, Eagles): He’s been solid in point-per-catch leagues. Sunday, Westbrook registered more than 17 carries for the first time in ‘05 (117 yards and a TD). The Eagles face bottom third rushing defenses (Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals) in three of the next four weeks.
Sell
The Jaguars offense: Jacksonville couldn’t score with Byron Leftwich, now sidelined with a broken ankle. Hopefully, you sold Jimmy Smith when we advised you to after his last TD in Week 4. Don’t buy into his reported chemistry with backup QB David Garrard.
Brad Johnson (QB, Vikings): Forget about Sunday’s TD outburst and remember he’s yet to throw for more than 207 yards in his second stint as a Viking.