A look back at year’s weather patterns

As 2006 comes to a close in just over two weeks, our weather patterns over this year can be described as “feast or famine,” in terms of moisture.

For example, most of our low-elevation snows for the 2005-06 season came in January 2006. February was nearly snowless. Then came the spring season, and the skies opened up as the Inland Northwest region had one of the wettest springs in recorded history.

The water faucet literally shut off from mid-June through much of October. That summer and early fall period was the exact opposite of our spring season, dry and hot. In fact, it was the most arid period in history across much of North Idaho. Then, the skies opened up again as November turned wet. However, December has turned a bit drier, at least during the first two weeks, as Pacific storms begin heading southward into California, typical of El Niño.

We are still in the midst of a moderate El Niño sea-surface temperature event. The abnormal warming of ocean waters along the equatorial regions of the south-central Pacific Ocean has once again altered weather patterns across the globe. During this warm-water event, Pacific storm systems often head south of our region into California.

Thanks to El Niño’s warming effects, much of our moisture, especially in the lower elevations, came as snow-eating rains. Before the milder, windy and rainy weather moved in late last week, The Spokane International Airport and parts of the Spokane Valley had about 3 inches of snow on the ground with up to 6 inches of the white stuff in Coeur d’Alene. By early Wednesday, though, only patches of snow could be spotted across our region as temperatures climbed into the mid to upper 40s. The high of 48 degrees in Coeur d’Alene, for example, broke the previous record of 47 degrees set in 1924.

As California continues to receive more moisture from the Pacific Ocean, we typically receive “what’s left over” as the Inland Northwest is on the northern edge of these systems. This should increase our chances a bit for a white Christmas as we’ll be in the colder section of the storms.

Speaking of a white Christmas, since records were kept at the Spokane International Airport, we had 58 days with over a trace of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 since 1881. Based on climatology over the last 125 years, the Spokane region has seen a white Christmas about 46 percent of the time. In Coeur d’Alene, there have been 78 days since 1895 with over a trace of snow on the ground.

The most snow ever measured on Dec. 25 at the airport was 23 inches back in 1951. Nearly three feet of snow was gauged in parts of North Idaho on that date. In 1996, 19 inches was measured at the Spokane International Airport with 10 inches of the white stuff on the ground in 1992, 1987 and 1916.

Despite this warm El Niño, there is a better than a 50-50 chance of a white Christmas across the Inland Northwest. Several Pacific storms are expected to arrive in our area early next week and sometime around the weekend in front of Christmas. Although most of the energy will go to our south, it does look like there will be enough cold air and moisture to bring some snow to Spokane, the Spokane Valley and much of North Idaho. Once the weekend storm passes, the air should be cold enough to preserve what snow does fall. Let’s hope that much of that storm’s moisture doesn’t come as rain. However, conditions in the mountains for snow should still be very good. Stay tuned.

But, even if Old Man Winter does evade this next weekend, I still see January becoming our snowiest and, perhaps, coldest month of the entire winter season, easily topping November for harsh conditions. However, February is looking dry once again like it’s been during the past couple of winters. Only scattered, quickly-melting snows will fall in March mostly before the start of spring on March 20.