Strong year seen for economy

Solid business expansion and a bustling housing market will keep the Spokane-North Idaho economy humming for at least one more year, two experts said Wednesday at a Spokane Valley economic forecast conference.

They turned to words like “incredible” to describe the area’s housing market and agreed that unlike other areas of the country, the regional economy is not cooling down.

The two were guest presenters at a conference sponsored by the Greater Spokane Valley Chamber of Commerce and The Spokesman-Review.

Dave Black, CEO of Tomlinson Black Commercial real estate company, said the area’s housing market is hotter than at any time in his 35 years in the business.

He gleefully told an audience of 300 people at the Mirabeau Park Hotel that people here are excited about downtown condos.

“Everybody’s jumping into condos. I can’t even believe we’re talking about a condo market,” said Black, noting that his score sheet identifies 392 condo units finished or due to be finished this year.

Shaun O’L. Higgins, director of marketing and sales for The Spokesman-Review, placed the area’s current prosperity in as an economic high-water mark.

The region is the beneficiary of a “reverse perfect storm,” enjoying a blend of strong job growth, company expansion, in-migration and a robust housing market, said Higgins.

Higgins, who gives economic forecasts regularly, said his previous forecast missed 2005’s banner performance by being too conservative. He doesn’t plan to repeat that mistake.

“I’m so optimistic, I scare myself,” he said, referring to a song by pop group Dan Hicks and His Hot Licks.

Higgins said the area is enjoying “a banner period” that could last through 2008, or even longer.

The two forecasters each touched on the economic impact of people moving here from elsewhere. Black, whose firm booked about $1 billion in sales across all its Northwest operations in 2005, said about one-third of new homes built in Spokane and North Idaho were bought by people moving here.

Black also said about 80 percent of the area’s waterfront property sales during 2005 involved out-of-towners.

Investors, he added, are taking a stronger interest in commercial properties in the region. “It used to be they would see us as dead. Now they see great opportunities and an area that is undervalued,” he said.

Higgins said the area continues drawing new residents in large part due to its image. Slate Magazine, an online publication, cited Spokane as the fifth-safest city in terms of stable geology and isolation from coastal disruptions.

If this area’s first boom came from the silver mines, Higgins said the community now can mine “the social ore of safe and kid-safe” and market it to prospective transplants.

Higgins also said the area is on a roll, gaining positive publicity for its sports teams and its amenities. “One thing we can’t overestimate is the power of exposure,” he said, citing Gonzaga University’s men’s basketball team as an example.

Looking ahead, Higgins predicts job growth nearly on a par with the heady numbers of 2005. For Spokane County he predicts net job growth of about 4,500 jobs; it grew by 5,200 this past year.

For Kootenai County, he sees a net gain of 3,500 jobs. It grew by around 4,000 in 2005.