Sharon absence leaves Bush plan at standstill

JERUSALEM – Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s stroke has left a gaping hole in the Bush administration’s approach to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and stabilizing the broader Middle East.

Sharon remained in grave condition Thursday. Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has formally assumed temporary leadership of the government, and several of Sharon’s closest allies have acknowledged that even if he survives the massive cerebral hemorrhage he suffered late Wednesday, it is highly unlikely he would ever be healthy enough to return to his post.

The apparent end of the Sharon era in Israel removes both the single most important individual driving events in the highly volatile corner of the world and the man embraced by President Bush as the best chance for settling the conflict that has raged for more than half a century.

While publicly backing a step-by-step plan called the “road map,” which gives each side a series of obligations and responsibilities that would lead to final settlement of the conflict, Bush willingly went along with Sharon’s very different approach.

“Bush has a stance, but not a strategy (for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute),” said William Quandt, who, as a senior White House adviser during the Carter administration, helped negotiate the Camp David accords. “He supported Sharon.”

In the wake of Sharon’s life-threatening illness, the Bush administration suddenly faces a landscape loaded with questions and an unexpected new concern: the danger of a power vacuum in Israel at a time the Palestinian leadership is itself weak and ill-organized.

For Bush, Sharon’s departure from the political scene comes as a personal blow. Sharon became premier just 17 days after Bush took office, making him the only Israeli leader Bush has dealt with. While Sharon could be difficult, he worked hard on his personal relationship with Bush and, by most accounts, succeeded in making it go.

For an American presidency in which good personal chemistry with a foreign leader has often set the tone for the larger political relationship, Bush’s ability to work closely with Sharon was a plus for both the United States and Israel.

The stakes have been high for both men. In the post-Sept. 11 period, progress on the Israeli-Palestinian issue suddenly took on very direct security implications for the administration as it moved more aggressively to dampen broader worldwide Islamic anger toward the United States.

As the U.S. struggled first with the unpredictability of Yasser Arafat’s sunset years and the turmoil that followed his death 14 months ago, Bush decided to back Sharon’s bold, unilateral moves.

Sharon, often irascible and prickly, dictated the timing and conditions last summer of his action in withdrawing Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, dismantling 21 Jewish settlements there and four others in the West Bank. It was the first significant move during the Bush presidency toward the two-state solution the administration has advocated.

“He’s been a pain in the neck, but an essential pain in the neck,” said a senior Bush administration official who declined to be identified.

Added Quandt: “He (Sharon) knew what he was doing, knew where he wanted to go, and Bush was basically ready to back him.”

But as a leader, Sharon has been a one-man show. Today, there is no strong Israeli successor for Bush to turn to.