Montana’s wheat crop expected to come up short

BILLINGS – Winter wheat production in the state is expected to hit 76.05 million bushels this year, more than 18 million bushels less than a year ago, as heat and wind have taken a toll on the growing crop, a federal agriculture agency reported Friday.

Montana’s branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service also forecast the average wheat yield at 39 bushels an acre, based on June 1 conditions. That’s down a bit from last month’s projection and pales next to 2005’s record yield of 45 bushels per acre. But agricultural statistician Thomas Chard said it would still be above average: The drought-skewed 10-year average is about 35 winter wheat bushels per acre.

“Any time you’re comparing against a record, it makes it look a bit wimpy,” Chard said.

The production estimate, down from the 81.9 million bushels projected last month, would leave this year’s crop as one of the biggest in the state since 1993. Last year, farmers produced 94.5 million bushels; in 1993, they brought in 102.9 million bushels, agency figures show.

Meanwhile, winter wheat production nationwide is expected to hit 1.26 billion bushels, which is also down from last month’s forecast and last year’s total, the agency reported. The average U.S. yield is expected to be 40.5 bushels per acre, nearly 4 bushels-per-acre less than in 2005, the agency said.

The Montana projections could fluctuate in the weeks leading up to harvest, Chard said; a lot depends on the weather.

The recent warm, windy and relatively dry conditions have helped speed crop development in areas, and extreme heat or limited precipitation could further affect yields or damage plants, he said.

Carl Mattson, conservation and farm program associate for the Montana Grain Growers Association, said farmers will take what rain they can get, particularly in the northern tier of the state. As long as there’s rain, the current projections should hold, Mattson said.

But damage done to the crop over the last few weeks is probably irreparable at this point, he added.

Mattson, who farms near Chester in north-central Montana, said he’d love to see 39 bushel-per-acre winter wheat this year, but won’t.

“This is a nice crop,” he said. “Not an excellent crop, but a nice crop.”