Democrats find Senate within reach

WASHINGTON – Democrats in the past two weeks have significantly improved their chances of taking control of the Senate, according to polls and independent analysts, with the battle now focused intensely on three states in the Midwest and upper South: Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.

Democratic challengers are in strong positions against GOP incumbents in four states – Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island – a trend that leaves the party looking for just two more seats to reclaim the majority. The main targets are states where Republicans in recent years have dominated but this year find themselves in hotly competitive races.

Except for a brief period in 2001 and 2002, Republicans have held power in the Senate continuously since the 1994 elections and now hold 55 of 100 seats. Only last year, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said it would take “a miracle” for his party to win control. But the same issues that are leading many pollsters and strategists to predict a Democratic takeover of the House – including the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war – have made a turnover in the Senate more plausible.

Democrats are gleeful about the prospect of reversing years-long political trends against them in such places as Montana and Ohio, as well as Southern states such as Tennessee and Virginia. But recent history highlights how difficult it is for Democrats to compete in places where Republicans usually win at the presidential and congressional levels. Two years ago, as Bush was winning re-election, Democrats lost Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and South Dakota.

Analysts say, however, that this year’s political environment is much more toxic for the GOP.

“The Democrats are going to gain somewhere between four and seven seats,” said Stuart Rothenberg, author of an independent newsletter that tracks campaigns nationwide. Of the contests in Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri, he said, “They need two of the three, and they have a pretty good chance” of winning them.

In four other states, Republican incumbents – Conrad Burns (Mont.), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Mike DeWine (Ohio) and Rick Santorum (Pa.) – are running behind in the latest public polls. Assuming that Democrats hold New Jersey, where Sen. Robert Menendez hopes the state’s traditional Democratic tilt will carry him past hard-charging Republican Tom Kean Jr., they would need to grab two more Republican-held seats to gain a 51 to 49 edge.

In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen was cruising toward re-election until he referred to a Democratic worker of Indian descent as “macaca” at a campaign event, clumsily handled revelations of his Jewish heritage and seemingly lost his once-easy touch with Old Dominion voters.

Democratic nominee Jim Webb is not a natural campaigner, Capitol Hill Democratic operatives acknowledge, but he has surged within striking distance of Allen in polls.

In the race for an open seat in Tennessee, Republicans believe Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, has turned his campaign around after replacing his campaign manager and is now more focused and aggressive. Democrats concede Corker has cut into the lead of Rep. Harold Ford (D) but are counting on Ford’s campaign skills to carry him through the final weeks.

Strategists see Missouri as perhaps the purest test of whether Republicans can overcome a strong Democratic headwind this year because there are few state-related factors or scandals affecting the contest. Neither Republican Sen. James Talent nor his Democratic challenger, state auditor Claire McCaskill, has been able to gain a clear advantage, and strategists on both sides anticipate a photo finish.

If Talent loses, “it will be because of the environment,” one senior GOP strategist said.

Until recently, almost no one on Capitol Hill was talking seriously of a possible Democratic Senate takeover, for several reasons. Open seats generally are easier for the opposition party to win, but this year, just one Republican incumbent, Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), is retiring.

Geography is even more challenging. Democrats must win several races in Red America, where through most of Bush’s presidency, Republicans have deepened their hold on elective offices, most notably in the South. This year, only two of the seven most vulnerable Republican Senate seats are in states carried by Sen. John Kerry in 2004: Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. The others – Ohio, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia – were Bush states in 2000 and 2004.

“I don’t think it was ever a map for taking back the majority,” said one Democratic strategist, who declined to be identified in order to provide candid information about the campaigns. “But the very fact of it is, we get closer to winning the majority every single week.”