Here come more snowfall predictions

Over the last several weeks, many people have asked me, “Are we going to get a lot of snow this winter?” In addition to that question, I’ve also received numerous comments about this upcoming winter season like, “I’m very depressed because I hear that El Niño will keep the snow away,” or, “the snow is fine, just keep it in the mountains.”

Well, as mentioned in previous articles, our “new” friend, or “old” nemesis, El Niño is back and is gaining strength in the south-central Pacific Ocean. This warm-water phenomenon, based on long-term climatology, typically gives us about 10 to 15 percent less snow during the winter season.

Since the late 1880s, the northwestern corner of the United States. and much of southwestern Canada have tended to be both warmer and drier than usual during particularly the weaker El Niño events. Many of the Pacific storms often go to the south or “underneath” our region as they follow either the subtropical or maritime polar upper-level jet streams into California and the normally dry southwestern U.S. During this type of pattern, we are usually left high and dry. This is what happened locally during winter of 2004-05 when we had a weak El Niño.

But, during powerful El Niños, we often join California in being warmer and wetter than normal with high mountain snows and mostly rain at the lower elevations below 3,000 feet. This happened in the winters of 1957-58, 1982-83, 1997-98 and other years. And, this new El Niño is growing fast.

The latest forecast, assuming the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event continues to expand, still indicates that Spokane, Spokane Valley and Coeur d’Alene regions should see drier than normal weather through the first half of this upcoming winter. Our driest periods tend to occur during “weak” El Niños. Temperatures may also be cooler than average as this area will be under a northwesterly flow from Canada.

In order to receive bigger rains or snows, we need more of a westerly flow from the Pacific Ocean. This is the pattern we should see in January as I expect that particular month to be the snowiest and coldest of the entire winter season. Don’t be surprised to see more than half of our season’s total snowfall during that month. The normal January snowfall for the Spokane International Airport is 12.9 inches and we should see nearly 20 inches of the white stuff accumulate during that 31-day period. In the Spokane Valley, up to 25 inches of snow should fall with about 29 inches in Coeur d’Alene. The mountain ski areas may see upwards of 80 to 100 inches during that time.

But, all of the months that normally produce bountiful snows on both sides of January may turn out to be drier than usual, especially at the lower elevations. This was the case in the winter of 2004-05, which saw the most snow-free February ever observed in our part of the country.

So, at the end of October, here’s my prediction for annual snowfall across our region. This is an early prediction so there’s a chance I may have to revise these numbers before winter begins. Along Spokane’s South Hill, I’m projecting 43 inches of snow for this season. The Spokane Valley should receive 41 inches with 39 inches expected at the Spokane International Airport. At Lake Coeur d’Alene, I estimate nearly 50 inches with up to 60 inches of total snowfall away from the lake in town and up 70 inches of snow in areas near the mountains. And, there have been a few winters when we’ve received a ton of snow during El Niño events, so even more snow is possible. Stay tuned for further developments.

For the folks who want more snow this fast-approaching winter season, there is some hope. A new weather pattern should bring more moisture into our region around the second week of November before the storms head to California. We should see at least a rain and snow mix in the lower elevations during that time.