Bush’s immigration plan in peril

WASHINGTON – Supporters of President Bush’s proposed immigration overhaul will attempt to resuscitate the stalled initiative when Congress returns from a monthlong break this week, but many openly concede that it may be a lost cause.

Lawmakers on differing sides of the issue and leaders of advocacy groups involved in the debate expressed what appears to be a widening consensus that Bush’s top domestic priority is likely dead for the year.

“I don’t get the sense that people have given up, but with every day that goes by, the stark reality of the calendar is setting in,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the chairman of the Senate subcommittee on immigration.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., a leading architect of a bipartisan immigration bill in the Senate, called on Bush to make an all-out push to rescue the bill before lawmakers quit work to campaign for the Nov. 7 congressional elections.

Otherwise, Kennedy said, “We’ll have a very, very difficult time.”

Key elements of Bush’s immigration plan include a guest-worker program that would legalize many of those now here illegally and toughened enforcement and border security to ultimately halt further illegal immigration.

Lawmakers could take a final shot at resolving the issue this year in a brief, post-election “lame-duck session” in November that would include surly outgoing lawmakers defeated for re-election. But the prospects of finding accord, particularly if Republicans lose control of one or both chambers, appear highly unlikely, many lawmakers and immigration experts said.

“I fear that the incentive to demagogue the issue and use it as a political football is going to be greater than the willingness to legislate,” said Cecilia Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights organization. “What’s inevitable is that the sense of urgency around this issue is not going to decrease and the country is going to continue to demand solutions.”

One potential avenue for compromise centers on a plan that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., unveiled just before Congress’ August recess in an attempt to overcome a deadlock between the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The plan, which would create a privately run guest-worker program, has drawn favorable editorial reviews in several major newspapers as well as guarded, though non-committal, support from the administration and some congressional leaders. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez described it as “an intriguing proposal” and a potential starting point for compromise.

Hutchison, in a telephone interview last week, said she is optimistic that a version of the proposal could get both sides talking and possibly win passage in a lame-duck session. But Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., leader of a coalition of House conservatives who rigidly oppose a guest-worker plan, said his allies probably would oppose the concept as a form of amnesty for illegal behavior.

A so-called comprehensive bill passed by the Senate in May encompasses the general outline of Bush’s immigration plan, including a guest-worker plan and a multitiered legalization provision that would put the majority of illegal immigrants on a path toward U.S. citizenship.

The House bill takes an enforcement-only approach, including a 700-mile-long fence along the Southwest border. Republican House leaders opposed to the Senate bill have balked at naming conferees to resolve differences between the two measures.