Many dinosaurs undiscovered, scientist says

WASHINGTON – Good news for dinosaur fans: There probably are a lot more of them waiting to be discovered. At least, their fossils are.

Peter Dodson of the University of Pennsylvania and Steve Wang of Swarthmore College estimate that 71 percent of all dinosaur genera – groups of dinosaur species – have yet to be discovered.

“It’s a safe bet that a child born today could expect a very fruitful career in dinosaur paleontology,” Dodson said.

The estimate appears in today’s issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Dodson, a professor of anatomy in Penn’s School of Veterinary Medicine and professor in Penn’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, first estimated the potential number of dinosaur genera in 1990 and now is revising that upward.

The estimates are based on the rates of discovery – about 10 to 20 annually – and the recent increase in fossil discoveries in China, Mongolia and South America.

Dodson suggests that 1,850 dinosaur genera eventually will be discovered. So far, only 527 genera have been found.

Fossilization itself is a rare event, Dodson and Wang note, and there may be no remains of as many as half the dinosaur genera that ever existed.

“I would never suggest that this prediction, however statistically sound, is the final word on dinosaur diversity,” Dodson said. “My intention is to fuel the discussion using the facts at hand, and this is the best estimate we can make with the data available.”