County showing rightward shift since 2004 vote
Spokane County voters were more likely to go Republican last Tuesday than they were in November 2004.
Lots of people suspected that, of course, but here at Spin Control, we can prove it.
A computer analysis of the partisan ballots voted in the primary shows that many areas of the county that were essentially swing precincts or mildly Democratic two years ago went Republican, and those that were mildly Republican went a deeper shade of red.
Without getting into too much mind-numbing math, let’s just say that Spin Control looked at the margins for key races in 2004 – president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and contested legislative seats – and had a computer software program project them onto a precinct map. We also took the ratios of Democratic and Republican ballots counted thus far from the primary, and projected them onto another map. Then we looked at the maps.
They don’t reproduce well in the tight confines of the newspaper, but you can see them online at www.spokesman review.com/blogs/spincontrol/.
Two years ago, the central city of Spokane was a strongly Democratic dark blue, surrounded by light blue. Many areas along the city’s borders were purple – that is, just a fairly even mix of Democrat or Republican, a smidge more for one party or the other, or in a few cases dead even. Much of the core of the Spokane Valley was lightly Republican, as was the southern third of the county.
Tuesday’s map is much redder. Some Democratic areas in north and south Spokane flipped to red, and swing areas on the West Plains went heavily Republican.
One common data problem, though, is that knowing how much it changed doesn’t really tell why. Could be that independents – who might be responsible for keeping the swing precincts in swing – found more to strike their interest on the Republican ballot this year.
Or maybe this helps back up all those stories about Democrats taking a Republican ballot to vote in the sheriff’s race. Even in the 3rd County Commissioner district, where Democrats had a hot three-way primary, many precincts “redded up.”
Or maybe Spokane’s getting more Republican with each passing year.
We’ll have to wait for the general for more data.
Take note for Nov. 7
Candidates are learning to adapt pretty well to the all-mail voting system by getting their campaign literature out sooner and scheduling their debates differently. Tuesday night proved they still have a ways to go to adapt to the all-mail vote-counting system.
In Spokane County, there was only one set of election results. Some campaigns were convinced there would be more, recalling the days when election results were doled out in dribs and drabs throughout the night and into the next morning.
The results at 8:10 p.m. were all that anyone was going to get. County Auditor Vicky Dalton and Elections Manager Paul Brandt had said so, numerous times, in the previous week. Still, when candidates were called by reporters about 8:30 p.m. for a comment about why they’d won or lost, many refused.
Some said they wanted to wait until more precincts reported. Others said these were just the absentees, and they wanted more complete results.
Thing is, with all-mail voting “the absentees” are, in essence, all of Spokane. There aren’t any percentages of precincts reporting on election night, except for 0 percent, and 100 percent.
It’s a brave new world.
Catch the candidates
After the primary, candidates and ballot measures are likely to have more chances to debate issues or discuss policies. We’ll print as many events as possible for the coming week if information is sent by the previous Friday morning to the phone number or e-mail below.
Tuesday: Congressional candidate Peter Goldmark addressing the Spokane chapter of AARP. 11:30 a.m., Old Country Buffet (back room) 5504 N. Division.
Tuesday: County Auditor Vicky Dalton discussion of elections with Need to Know political group. 6:30 p.m., 314 S. Spruce in Browne’s Addition.
Thursday: Goldmark forum to discuss “critical issues,” 7 p.m., Northeast Community Center, 4001 N. Cook.
Saturday: Post-primary forum for 9th Legislative District candidates. 11 a.m., On Sacred Grounds coffee shop, 12212 E. Palouse Highway.
Oct. 1: Green Party Senate candidate Aaron Dixon, at a reception and press conference, 3 p.m., Community Building, 35 W. Main.