Democrats delay cost of risky legislation
Last November, voters handed control of state government to Democrats. Sunday, the Democratic majority left Olympia delivering less than many voters of all stripes expected. That restraint is a good thing, for the state and for Democratic prospects in 2008.
People who follow politics cultivate long memories, believing that a firm grasp of the past is the key to understanding the future. Many in Olympia looked back to 1993 to get a handle on the 2007 session.
Here’s the parallel.
In 1992, the state elected Democrat Mike Lowry as governor, supporting him with legislative majorities unequaled until today. Then Democrats outnumbered Republicans 65 to 33 in the House and 28 to 21 in the Senate. Democrats now maintain a 62 to 36 majority in the House and dominate 32 to 17 in the Senate.
Nationally in 1992, Bill Clinton, aided by the quixotic candidacy of Ross Perot, returned the presidency to Democrats. With his party controlling Congress, Clinton pursued an ambitious agenda, which included new energy taxes backed by Vice President Al Gore and a major restructuring of the health care system directed by first lady Hillary Clinton.
Misreading their mandates, Democrats, nationally and in Olympia, tacked left. While congressional efforts stalled, our state passed tax increases and government-run health care legislation cited as a model for the nation. In two years, the GOP was the majority party in both Washingtons.
The parallels are imperfect. Lowry, an unabashed liberal, took office with a slumping economy and a budget shortfall. Gov. Chris Gregoire, a cautious lawyer given to mediation, entered her third year as governor with a $2 billion cushion and a growing economy. The national landscape is also different. Buoyed by opposition to the war and President George W. Bush, Democrats won their majority with no domestic mandate.
The most important difference, however, may be Democratic leaders’ understanding of history. They were mindful not only of the lessons of 1993, when liberal hubris cost them their majority, but also of the recent Republican rout, which also stemmed from partisan conceit.
So they moved pragmatically, lighting long fuses and postponing the payoffs.
Consider health care, family leave and climate change legislation. In each instance, Democrats initiated potentially sweeping policy changes while delaying and paring back the more extravagant ambitions of liberal activists.
Rather than immediately establishing a government-run health insurance market like that in Massachusetts, Washington will ease into it. Here, the Legislature set up a Massachusetts-style pilot program for small employers with low-income workers. Rather than creating a broad paid family leave benefit funded with an employee-paid tax, lawmakers narrowed the measure and punted the funding mechanism to a task force. And, although they imposed new restrictions on public utilities, lawmakers generally chose to set goals for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, leaving it to another task force to identify the best means for achieving the goals.
Overall, legislative leaders and the governor effectively managed their agenda. Most observers credit – or blame – House Speaker Frank Chopp for keeping the party from drifting over the white line into the left lane. I think that’s accurate. The House was the more cautious chamber this year. Nonetheless, the Democratic majority pursued a persistently progressive platform.
Health care coverage for children expanded dramatically. Education funding increased. The Puget Sound Partnership got the green light for a massive clean-up effort. Voters will get a chance to allow a simple majority to pass school levies.
There were also missed opportunities and unnecessary fiscal gambles. Health care reform did nothing to control costs for small employers. Property tax limits threatened by court decisions should have been reaffirmed. And there’s no excuse for a five-year delay in the WASL math graduation requirement. A fifteen percent increase in the state budget guarantees future shortfalls, setting up the dreary choice between higher taxes and spending cuts. A token deposit in a rainy day fund does not alone constitute financial responsibility.
Still the Democratic majority chose their targets well. Today, their legislative record looks like good politics, which does not always mean good policy. It’s hard to gauge the blast while the fuses still burn. But they took risks with the economy and there are likely to be unhappy consequences.