Racing: 2007 Nextel Cup predictions

It’s time for our yearly predictions as to who will make the NASCAR Nextel “Chase for the Cup.”

Last year, we nailed both Jimmy Johnson and Matt Kenseth contending for the title, and had Kevin Harvick breaking in for a serious run. Jeff Gordon? We thought he’d do better, but was a shoe-in for the run. Very few prognosticators (if any) saw Denny Hamlin’s bid coming, and almost all had Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman and Carl Edwards easily in the Chase field. Wrong on all five.

This year I’m going to pick 12 drivers because NASCAR has expanded the Chase field from 10 drivers to 12 and will offer even more points for a win.

So, here are my 2007 predictions of drivers who will make the Chase for the Nextel Cup field, in no particular order, with early odds on winning the Cup title:

“Matt Kenseth: steady, pro who can win on any track, 4-12.

“Jimmy Johnson: defending champ always in contention, 4-13.

“Tony Stewart: best pure driver out there, knows how to win, 4-14.

“Kevin Harvick: if anyone can win big in 2007, it’s Happy, 5-15.

“Kurt Busch: ‘04 Champ rebounds after failed ‘06 Penske effort, 10-16.

“Jeff Gordon: steady and always a threat, 8-17.

“Jeff Burton: 2006 not a fluke, and he’s back again, 8-18.

“Dale Earnhardt Jr.: makes the field regardless of contract squabbles, 4-19.

“Carl Edwards: Roush driver scores several big wins in his return, 9-110.

“Kasey Kahne: another great year for a future champ, 4-111.

“Denny Hamlin: young star’s future on the rise, 5-112.

“Kyle Busch: a more mature Busch emerges, 5-1.

Those Just Missing

Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray. All are 12-1 picks to win the championship if they get in.

I’m sure you noticed there are no Toyotas in the Chase. With the exception of guaranteed starters Dale Jarrett and Dave Blaney, all other Toyotas will have to qualify for the first five races on speed (or win a Twin 150 to make the Daytona 500).

If you miss even one of these initial five races, you probably won’t make the Chase field, be it 10 or 12 cars. Miss two? You’ll be lucky to finish in the Top 35 in points for 2007, and the whole scenario starts over again for 2008.

Remember what happened to Scott Riggs last February? He missed making the Daytona 500 field, and it was a yearlong uphill battle for Riggs to finish as well as he did.

Now, with all this said, I do believe Toyota will win a race this year, possibly a Car of Tomorrow event on a smaller, non-restrictor-plate venue. I also feel Blaney and Jarrett will run well, and may even win. Making the Chase lies in how quickly Toyota adapts to the series and making those first five races.

Other Predictions

“Rookie of the Year: Paul Menard noses out Juan Pablo Montoya

“Most Improved: Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman

“Biggest Disappointments: Major sponsors who see their cars not make the field

“Biggest Surprises: A.J. Allmendinger, David Reutimann and part-timer Todd Bodine

“First Car of Tomorrow winner: Kurt Busch