‘06 warmest on record
The 2006 average temperature across the lower 48 states was 55 degrees. According to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., it was the warmest average annual reading on record and nearly identical to the record set in 1998.
The 55-degree average is 2.2 degrees above the 20th century mean temperature. It was also .07 degrees higher than in 1998. Forecasters also state that the past nine years have been among the 25 warmest years in recorded history. The readings used to calculate the national average temperature were obtained from a network of more than 1,200 U.S. historical climatological stations.
December 2006 was also the fourth-warmest December since records began being kept in 1895. Five states also recorded the mildest December on record, including New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Some of this warming may be contributed to the “moderate” El Niño in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. This warm-water phenomenon kept arctic air “bottled up,” resulting in the milder early winter season. In fact, much of northern New England was left practically “snowless” last November and December, which led to a poor start to the 2006-07 ski season.
In our region, the average temperature at the Spokane International Airport was 49.1 degrees. The normal is 48 degrees. In Coeur d’Alene, the mean temperature for 2006 was 52.3 degrees. The average is 49.4 degrees. At an Otis Orchards station in the Spokane Valley, the mean temperature was 49.9 degrees. The average in this location is 49.0 degrees.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, U.S. and global annual temperatures have been approximately 1 degree warmer, with the greatest acceleration of this climb in the past 30 years. Part of this rise may be attributed to the increased asphalt and concrete in our urban areas, also known as the “urban heat island effect.”
There is no argument that global temperatures have been rising, especially in recent years. The burning of fossil fuels, which continues to add more carbon dioxide each year to the atmosphere, essentially traps the heat instead of allowing it to escape into the upper troposphere.
But, there are some signs of cooling, especially in the higher latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. In the center of Greenland and Antarctica, ice sheets have actually been thickening in recent years. In one case, the ice has grown to more than a mile thick in Greenland. Enormous chunks of ice have been breaking free along the edges of the large glaciers and ice sheets, but that may be due to the warming of ocean temperatures.
The warming of our planet also may be a part of a long-term cycle. Believe it or not, Earth was much warmer thousands of years ago than it is today. As late as the mid-1800s, we were still in the midst of “The Little Ice Age.” Part of the recent climb in temperature may be a recovery from that frigid period.
Despite a weakening of the warming effects of El Niño, scientists are currently predicting that 2007 will become the “world’s hottest year ever recorded.” They are giving a rather healthy 60 percent probability that this year will break the global mark set in 1998. However, not all climatologists, including myself, believe this scenario as there are signs of renewed cooling. Stay tuned.
Wetter, cooler spring ahead
Looking down the meteorological roadway, I see more pendulating weather patterns locally and for the rest of the Inland Northwest between now and early March. There will be some more cold weather arriving in early February, but I don’t see it lasting more than a few days or temperatures plunging once more below the zero mark except, perhaps, in the most frigid locations.
I see less snow than normal in the region after early February as temperatures rise back into the 40s and, possibly even the mild 50s. There will be snow at times into late March or early April, but it should melt rather quickly.
I still see a wetter and cooler than normal spring season again in 2007, and it shouldn’t be quite so hot and dry this summer.