Al-Qaida has spread throughout Pakistan

WASHINGTON – Al-Qaida has strongholds throughout Pakistan, not just in the areas along the border with Afghanistan that were stressed in a terrorism assessment this week, according to U.S. intelligence officials and counterterrorism experts who say Osama bin Laden’s network is even more deeply entrenched than described.

The National Intelligence Estimate, which reflected the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, described al-Qaida as rejuvenated and freely operating from bases in northwestern Pakistan. But several officials and outside experts interviewed since the document’s release said the situation is more complex.

These analysts said the Bush administration was blaming al-Qaida’s resurgence too narrowly on an agreement that Pakistan struck with tribal leaders in the country’s northwest territories last September.

In recent years, U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials who specialize in South Asia have watched with growing concern as al-Qaida has moved men, money and recruiting and training operations into Pakistani cities such as Quetta and Karachi as well as less populated areas of the country.

Militant Islamists are still a minority in Pakistan – commanding allegiance of just over 10 percent of the population, judging by election returns. But al-Qaida has been able to widen its sway by strengthening long-standing alliances with radical fundamentalist religious groups, charities, criminal gangs, elements of the government security forces and even some political officials, these officials said.

Bin Laden’s network also has strengthened ties to groups fighting for Pakistani control of Kashmir, a broadly popular cause throughout Pakistan.

“It is a much bigger problem than just saying it is a bunch of tribal Islamists in the fringe areas,” said Bruce Riedel, a former South Asia/Pakistan expert at the CIA, National Security Council and Pentagon who retired last year after 30 years of counterterrorism and policymaking experience.

Riedel disagreed, in particular, with the administration’s effort to blame al-Qaida’s resurgence on September’s peace agreement. Under the terms of that truce, Pakistan pulled its troops out of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas near the border in exchange for promises by tribal leaders that militants affiliated with al-Qaida and the Taliban would not engage in violent activity in Pakistan or Afghanistan.

“By putting it all in the (tribal region), we are trying to downplay this, saying it is all a problem of one cease-fire agreement that was a bad idea, when in fact al-Qaida has spread throughout Pakistan,” said Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy.