Snowfall this year could be heavier

Over the last few weeks, the La Niña sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean has been strengthening. The latest information indicates that this cooler-than-normal ocean temperature phenomenon has leveled off, at least for now.

Much cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures now stretch from the west coast of South America westward across the equatorial regions. During La Niña events, our region typically sees cooler and wetter conditions during the winter season. Heavier snows in the Inland Northwest, however, often occur when La Niña weakens from November through February.

As I mentioned last week, sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean regions and the upper-level jet stream flows seem to dictate what kind of winter we’ll experience. Last year, we were dealing with an El Niño, the abnormal warming of ocean waters. Although the Inland Northwest did receive the moisture, most of it came in the form of rain in the lower elevations while the mountains enjoyed plenty of snow for skiers and snowboarders.

Based on current weather and sea-surface temperature patterns, this winter should be a bit snowier than normal. The normal snowfall for Spokane’s International Airport is 40.9 inches, with 66.7 inches for Coeur d’Alene. Listed below are some snowfall predictions for selected cities and towns in our region provided by Idaho climatologist Cliff Harris. Since he and I have worked together for about 20 years, I would go along with these forecasts.

However, I do tell everyone that I’m not in weather production, only in sales. I may have to revise these early snowfall outlooks, either up or down, if there are sudden major changes of the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean region.

1. Area ski resorts (Mount Spokane to Lookout Pass at the summits): 225 to 350 inches.

2. Sandpoint: 91 inches.

3. Hayden: 78 inches.

4. Coeur d’Alene: 76 inches.

5. Kalispell: 69 inches.

6. Missoula: 57 inches.

7. Spokane (South Hill): 49 inches.

8. Post Falls: 48 inches.

9. Spokane (International Airport): 43 inches.

10. Spokane Valley: 41 inches.

As far as our long-term weather pattern is concerned, I still see a rather wet and cold November through March, especially if La Niña continues to strengthen, or at least maintain its intensity, in the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Our first measurable snowfall in the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest may arrive as early as the mid-November period. Some parts of our region, mainly in the higher elevations, may see a white Veterans Day.

By the Thanksgiving weekend into early December, we may see our local area ski resorts opening for business. A deep trough of low pressure should develop off the West Coast over the next few weeks that would direct a series of storms across the Inland Northwest.

It’s possible that as much as an inch or more precipitation will fall in the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest between the middle to the end of this month, just after Thanksgiving. Elevations above 2,000 feet should see occasional periods of wet snow mixed in with the chilly rains.

The good news for skiers and other winter sports enthusiasts is that I see as much as 3 to 6 feet of snow falling atop the summits of the local ski resorts between from mid-November through early December.

Will this snowy forecast actually work out? Only time will tell. Stay tuned.