Drought conditions across much of U.S.

Although I am expecting a change to the wetter side of the meteorological scale, much of the Inland Northwest has been enduring drought conditions for this year.

Since Jan. 1, 8.72 inches of moisture has fallen at the Spokane International Airport. The normal is about 12.50 inches. Last year at this time, we had nearly 15 inches of total moisture. In Coeur d’Alene, 16.09 inches of rain and melted snow has been measured since Jan. 1. The normal is slightly less than 20 inches.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a Web site constructed by federal and academic scientists, much of North Idaho is categorized as being in “severe drought.” Eastern Washington, however, is considered to be “abnormally dry.” The categories of drought range from “abnormally dry” to “exceptional drought.”

Much of Southern California and western Arizona are in the “extreme drought” category, while the parched Southeast (with the exception of Florida) are experiencing “exceptional drought” conditions. California’s rainy season begins on July 1 and ends the following June 30. The rainfall period of 2006-07 was the driest in recorded history in parts of Southern California, including the Los Angeles area.

The tinder dry landscape along with the hot Santa Ana winds coming off the mountains in Southern California helped to create the disastrous fire storm in that region last month. That situation began with high pressure located to the northeast of southern California with lower pressures in the Pacific Ocean. Our atmosphere is constantly trying to equalize itself as air rushes from high to lower pressures. As the winds were funneled through canyons and valleys in Southern California, they increased in speed that ultimately helped to spread the fires.

Drought conditions are also extreme in many parts of the Southeast. Wildfires earlier in the summer, combined with the lack of moisture, has led to a water shortage emergency. In Atlanta, rainfall is over 16 inches below normal for the year, making it currently the third driest year on record. Huntsville, Ala., has a rainfall deficit of over 22 inches, Charleston, South Carolina is over 10 inches below normal and Knoxville, Tenn., is more than 13 inches below normal for the year.

The Southeast also depends on moisture from tropical storms, which can bring torrential rains along with other types of severe weather. For the 2007 season, however, these rains did not materialize. With the La Niña cooler than normal sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, conditions in that region are expected to get worse.

In the Inland Northwest, there is at least a 70 percent chance that this winter will be both colder and snowier than usual.

If this precipitation outlook fails to develop, the resulting continued drought conditions will have dire consequences for much of the West. More than two million acres in Idaho were burned by huge wildfires in 2007, the most of any state in the nation – even after deadly California blazes in late October which consumed more than 500,000 acres.

As of early this week, it appears our major weather change will arrive on schedule. Some local ski resorts may be able to open on a limited basis for skiing and snowboarding by Thanksgiving weekend. They may be in full operation by early December if we do see the three to six feet of snow at elevations above 4,000 feet.

The lower elevations above 2,000 feet should see occasional periods of wet snow mixed at times, particularly in the early to mid afternoon hours, with chilly rains. It will be a pattern of mostly snow, though, from 2,500 and 3,500 feet.