Expect colder, snowier December
As of Tuesday morning, the Inland Empire was finally seeing some measurable snowfall in the lower elevations. This is good news for skiers and snowboarders as heavier amounts of snow has been falling in the higher mountains. With the cold temperatures and increased precipitation, most ski resorts should be fully operational within the next few weeks, if not sooner.
With Christmas approaching, the big question is if we’re going to have a white Christmas?
With the La Niña cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean maintaining its strength, the chances for a colder and snowier December through February are better than 50-50.
I believe the chances for a white Christmas are about 60 percent if Mother Nature continues on her present course. Global weather patterns are being influenced by La Niña, and it looks like the Inland Empire is on track for that typical pattern of colder and snowier weather.
There have been 59 days with over a trace of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 since 1881, according to records kept at the Spokane International Airport. Based on climatology over the last 126 years, the Spokane region has seen a white Christmas about 47 percent of the time. In Coeur d’Alene, there have been 79 days with snow on the ground on Dec. 25since 1895.
Last year, there was plenty of snow on the ground about a week before Christmas before a strong push of warmer air from the south melted much of the low-elevation snowpack within a few days. However, there was just enough snow on the ground in Coeur d’Alene and Spokane last Dec. 25 to declare a white Christmas.
Last winter the region was under the influence of the much warmer El Niño sea-surface temperature event. Much of the mild air near Hawaii was pushed far to the north and brought our region more rain than snow. But in the mountains, it was cold enough to produce plenty of snow for outdoor enthusiasts.
The most snow measured on Dec. 25th at the airport was 23 inches, in 1951. Nearly 3 feet of snow was gauged in parts of North Idaho on that date. In 1996, 19 inches was measured at the Spokane International Airport with 10 inches on the ground in 1992, 1987 and 1916.
Early December may bring a brief spell of above-normal temperatures, but by the middle of the month the storm door will open once again, allowing a series of systems from the Pacific. With the La Niña pattern, much of the moisture should fall as snow in the lower elevations. There may be another break in the wet weather pattern before Christmas.
During Christmas week, another round of frigid weather will likely be on tap for the Inland Empire, before more snow begins to fall. Could we actually see a white Christmas as well as snow falling on Christmas Day? Particular weather cycles that would favor that pattern will be in place at that time. Let’s see if they pan out.