Warming opens Arctic sea lane
According to the European Space Agency in a report issued last week, “Arctic ice has shrunk to its lowest level on record based on new satellite images.”
Therefore, many scientists are predicting that the Northwest Passage may finally become a navigable shipping lane that could trim thousands of miles from voyages from Europe to Asia by bypassing the Panama Canal in Central America.
The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean along the northern coast of North America via the waterways of the Canadian Arctic.
In the late summer of this year, there was a brief opening in this Northwest Passage for ships to pass through. The Arctic icepack has shrunk in recent years by an incredible million square miles. Half of this rapid melting has occurred since 2005.
This is the first time in at least 1,000 years that the Northwest Passage has been open even on a short-term basis. Normally, sea ice remains a severe problem for shipping even in the middle of summer.
Researcher Claes Ragner of Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo says that “Routes between Scandinavia and Japan, for example, could be almost halved in distance. A stable and reliable Northwest Passage would mean a lot to both importing and exporting nations.” But Ragner adds “It will take years for such profitable shipping routes to be used on a regular basis. In the near-term, the passage won’t be ice-free year around. The route certainly won’t be stable and dependable. There will always be an element of danger.”
By contrast, scientists like Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow say, “global cooling may begin as early as 2012 to 2015 that won’t reach its peak until at least 2055 to 2060. Canals will eventually freeze over again in the Netherlands, much like during the so-called ‘Little Ice Age,’ probably within the next couple of decades.”
As far as near-term conditions are concerned, the major weather change finally arrived across the Inland Northwest. Despite the recent much-needed rainfall, precipitation totals are still less than 70 percent of normal at Spokane International Airport as of Tuesday afternoon. In Coeur d’Alene, accumulated moisture since Jan. 1 is more than 80 percent of normal.
We should see several brief breaks from the wet weather this month. The first one should be around this weekend or the early portion of next week. Then we’ll see more showers and chilly temperatures with snow in the higher mountains. Another short period of dry and relatively mild weather is expected about two to three weeks from now. That could produce some Indian summer-type conditions.
Shortly before Halloween, storms are forecast to sweep through the region. In-between the rather fast-moving weather systems, we should see several mornings, especially in areas away from the warming effects of the lakes, with frosty readings in the upper 20s and low to mid-30s.
If the La Niña cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event continues to hold, the mid-October through mid-January 90-day period should see at least 30 percent more precipitation than usual.
There should be heavier-than-normal snowfalls, particularly above 4,000 feet in the nearby ski resorts. Even the lower elevations will probably measure at least 10 percent to 20 percent additional accumulations of snow this fast-approaching winter. It’s also possible that some ski resorts could open near or shortly after Thanksgiving.