Good day to labor
Economist Grant Forsyth was finishing up his MBA degree in 1990, and the economy was golden. But when Forsyth started job hunting, things quickly turned from gold to lead. Oil prices spiked. The first Gulf War erupted. Forsyth sent out hundreds of resumes, but he didn’t get a nibble. So he returned to graduate school and earned a doctorate degree in economics. The Eastern Washington University associate economics professor has this caution for all job seekers: Remember, things can change in a hurry.
It’s an important caution for Labor Day 2007, because laborers have it pretty good right now. The seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rates in Washington and Idaho flirted all year with historic lows. In Idaho, unemployment percentages stayed below 3 percent. And in Washington, the rates mostly remained below 5 percent. The entire West is a laborer’s paradise; in Montana, the ultra-low unemployment rate has forced McDonald’s into paying livable wages – well, almost.
So what do economists do with these low unemployment rates? Worry. Here’s why, according to Randy Barcus, Avista’s chief economist.
When unemployment rates get too low, something called “wage pressure” results. Translation: Employers, competing for fewer workers, must pay employees more. Great for the employee, right? Not always. When wages get forced too high, employers look for ways to automate and outsource. Also, low unemployment can sometimes lead to inflation which can lead to higher interest rates, which means that companies can’t afford to invest as much in expanding their businesses.
But, worries aside, economists say laborers should take full advantage of the plush job market. And communities can really benefit, too, especially if they can attract trained and educated workers looking for change.
“If you’re living someplace you don’t like living and hear that jobs are plentiful in Spokane, you might come here to apply for work,” Barcus pointed out.
Barcus came of working age in the 1960s when the country was experiencing a labor shortage, because birth rates had been so low during the Depression and World War II. As he looked for permanent work in 1969, he considered many job offers. He joined the Army, and when he got out just two years later, the economy was in the doldrums. Some of the same employers desperate to hire him two years earlier told him: “There are no jobs, and it will be this way for several years.”
Unemployment figures rise and fall. The economy ducks in and out of prosperity. Astute laborers, rather than feel helpless victims to economic whims, will take advantage of workplace training and company college tuition programs. Even in the best of economic times, this allows them to be ready when things change, and remember, things can change in a hurry.