Solar inactivity could mean colder winter
Since early this year, sunspot activity (storms on the sun) has greatly decreased. With the exception of some very slight solar activity July 18 through 20, no sunspots have been observed since late May.
Some scientists are concerned that the recent decline in sunspot activity is unusual and could persist. Others say that August and September are critical months as our sun is expected to start seeing an increase in sunspots based on previous long-term cycles.
Our sun may seem unwavering in the sky, but it does have a “heartbeat” of sorts. There are pulsations between dimmer and brighter phases so slow that it only “beats” approximately nine times each century. The total energy varies about 0.1 percent over each 11-year cycle from high to low activity. But, it seems that the slight variance in the sun’s phases does play a critical role in the Earth’s environment.
For example, there has been a correlation between the sun’s inactive phase and the recent global cooling. During the peak of the Earth’s warming in the late 1990s and early 2000s, solar activity was considered by many to be unusually high, enough to actually damage satellites and other communication devices.
The last time the sun was this quiet for an extended period was between 1645 and 1715, a period astronomers call the “Maunder Minimum.” During those 70 years, the face of the sun was nearly blank of sunspots, or solar storms, and broke away from its normal 11-year cycle. At the same time, Europe was dealing with extreme cold and the Thames River in London froze solid. Glaciers also advanced in the Alps and the northern sea ice expanded. By the early 19th century, for reasons no one understands, the sun returned to its familiar 11-year sunspot cycle.
However, NASA solar physicist David Hathaway stated in a recent article, “The ongoing lull in sunspot numbers is well within history norms for the solar cycle. The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle. We call this Solar Minimum. It’s the period of quiet that separates one Solar Max from another.”
During solar maximums, huge sunspots and intense solar flares create auroras, satellites are damaged because of high radiation, and there are numerous radio blackouts. This occurred in 2000, 2001 and again in mid-2005.
If sunspot activity remains very low through at least early 2009 and a new El Niño forms, we will probably see a colder than normal winter season with near- to below-normal snowfall. The next several months should give us an indication where we’re headed as far as solar activity and sea-surface temperatures are concerned. Stay tuned.