Gulf Coast prepares for tropical storm

CHALMETTE, La. – Determined to avoid the mistakes made when Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, federal and state officials began preparations for massive evacuations if it becomes clear that Tropical Storm Gustav will sweep over the region with the same force as Katrina.

Republican Party officials said Thursday that they are considering delaying the start of the GOP convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul because of Gustav, which is on track to hit the Gulf Coast, and possibly New Orleans, as a full-force hurricane early next week.

The threat is serious enough that White House officials are also debating whether President Bush should cancel his scheduled convention appearance on Monday, the first day of the convention, according to administration officials and others familiar with the discussion.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, in New Orleans to meet with Democratic Mayor Ray Nagin and Louisiana Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, said that as of Thursday afternoon, most estimates projected that Gustav, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, would strike between Texas and Florida early next week, “with a real possibility of getting an impact in Louisiana.”

“We could anticipate a Category 3 hurricane,” Chertoff said, “so we’re talking about a very serious storm and one that should be hitting the area perhaps Monday into Tuesday.”

About 3,000 National Guard troops were on standby in Louisiana, 5,000 were readying in Texas and about 65,000 were available across the Gulf states, Guard officials said.

Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration, and Jindal and Mississippi Republican Gov. Haley Barbour pre-declared states of emergency. Chertoff said Jindal and Perry were expected to make evacuation decisions beginning today.

Plans call for the evacuation of tourists in New Orleans and of sick, disabled and elderly people in Texas to begin 60 hours before the projected landfall of a major hurricane, to be followed by orders for the general population living in low-lying or flood-prone coastal areas, said R. David Paulison, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

New Orleans officials were prepared to order the evacuation of all 325,000 city residents, providing transportation for 30,000 people.

“Right now, all the models say it is coming toward us,” Nagin told PBS’s “NewsHour With Jim Lehrer.” “Anything above a Category 2 storm, we’re evacuating everybody out of the city, and we have buses, trains and planes lined up to accomplish that.

Bush has been receiving regular updates on the approaching storm from officials at the Homeland Security Department and FEMA, White House press secretary Dana Perino said.

“He’s involved, engaged, and getting briefings and working to make sure that the federal assistance is there, but that obviously state and local authorities have responsibilities,” Perino said. “And by all accounts and purposes, they are following through on those.”

Nagin left the Democratic convention in Denver early and Jindal has canceled plans to attend the GOP convention.

While U.S. officials emphasized that billions of dollars have been spent to make the New Orleans levee system stronger than it was in 2005 – including improvements to flood walls, pumping stations and navigation canals – construction was not set to be completed until 2011, leaving a possibility of significant flooding in New Orleans.

For Bush and Republican presidential candidate John McCain, Gustav threatens to provide an untimely reminder of Hurricane Katrina. A new major storm along the Gulf Coast would renew memories of one of the low points of the Bush administration, while pulling public attention away from McCain’s formal coronation as the GOP presidential nominee.

Senior Republicans said images of political celebration in the Twin Cities while thousands of Americans flee a hurricane could be disastrous. “Senator McCain has always been sensitive to national crisis,” said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds, noting that McCain postponed announcing his presidential candidacy in 2000 because of the war in the Balkans. “We are monitoring the situation very closely.”

Staging a convention during a major natural disaster would be a public relations challenge for either political party. But GOP officials say the damage could be especially heavy for their party, whose reputation was tarred by the Bush administration’s bungling of Katrina and its aftermath in 2005.

A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could also cast unwelcome attention on the offshore oil rigs that McCain has championed as a solution to rising gas prices – they are now being evacuated in the face of the coming storm.

One senior GOP official said he does not anticipate a convention delay at this point, but he said the event would have to be reorganized if a large storm hit a major city on the coast.

“You would have to dramatically change the nature of what you do. Much less partisan. Much less political,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because internal discussions are ongoing. He added that all of the speakers would have to retool their addresses to reflect the storm and its impact. “Otherwise, it’s the elephant in the room.”

Michael Brown, who was forced out as chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency after Katrina, said all sides appear to have learned the importance of paying attention to disaster response.

“The American people want to know the people they elected are paying attention, care about them and are making decisions they need to make,” Brown said. “The smart thing is not to poke their chests out and say what a great job they’re doing or going to do, but just to do what needs to be done.”