So the stock market has just had its worst June since the 1930s Great Depression. Most of us are at least a little depressed about the economy in general.

Me, too. But this week I found a little fun in a new kind of office pool based not on the usual big-time sports events but the struggling stock market. Ten associates and I – all news types – started a semiannual pool on the Standard & Poor’s 500, the stock market’s best measuring stick.

We each put $20 in the pool in January, for a $200 pot, with the payout on June 30. Facts and results:

The S&P closed Dec. 31 at 1468.

It closed June 30 at 1280.

My winning prediction was 1290.

A $200 payoff on $20 is not a bad return on investment. But since economics is admittedly not my long suit, how did I win? By playing the people and politics cards.

It was clear last year-end that most people were really down in the dumps over another year under a president with the worst domestic and foreign record in our history. When people are that down, they don’t invest. They hunker down more.

What does that mean looking ahead? Gradually, as the November presidential election approaches, people will realize that George W. Bush will matter no more after next January. They’ll conclude that under either John McCain or Barack Obama, things will get better. So, they’ll invest and spend again.

That’s why my new office pool pick for the S&P on Dec. 31 is 1536, up 20 percent. Remember, economics is not my long suit. So don’t bet the rent money. But you might have some fun in your own office pool.