NASA forecasts fewer hurricanes

A couple of weeks ago, I received an e-mail detailing a recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientific paper indicating that fewer tropical storms and hurricanes are likely during much of the rest of the 21st century, especially if we see more global cooling down the climatological highway.

These respected scientists are forecasting 27 percent fewer named tropical storms overall with 18 percent less storms that actually become hurricanes. Also, there will likely be at least 8 percent fewer major hurricanes like Katrina and Andrew above a Category 3. NASA claims that “increased wind shear in the tropics will actually cut the number of hurricanes.”

The recent cycle of intense global warming, the strongest in more than 1,000 years, seems to have peaked in 1998. It’s the opinion of NASA that the current phase of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean Oceans peaked in 2005, when there were an all-time record 28 named tropical storms.

Each April, hurricane weather wizard William Gray from Colorado State University, offers his forecast for the six-month hurricane season beginning June 1. As of early June, Gray was looking for 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, four of which should be major.

Based on the current sea-surface temperature patterns, I’m predicting somewhere between 15 and 18 named storms this 2008 hurricane season. We’ve already seen a “minimal” tropical storm, Arthur, which quickly fell apart on June 1 near Cancun along the eastern shores of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

Warmer temperatures in the forecast

Our readers are probably not too surprised that the first week of June was one of the wettest and coolest such periods on record in the region. Last Saturday, parts of North Idaho didn’t make it out of the 40s for high temperatures.

The good news is that we’ll start to warm back up again by mid- to late June into at least the 70s. The showers will likewise decrease in frequency despite some increased thunderstorm activity.

I’m still looking for the late June through late September summer season to turn both warmer and drier than normal, like the hot-and-dry summers of 2006 and 2007. A full-blown drought, though, is not likely.

There may be a bit more thunderstorm activity than in recent summers, but the storms will be of short duration, the hit-and-miss kind of rains that seldom spoil outdoor activities.

I see few, if any, afternoons this summer with readings above the century mark, but there will be numerous 90-degree days, particularly during the 23-day span from mid-July through the first week of August.