Expect hot days mid-July to early August

Sea-surface temperature patterns have been changing over the last four to six weeks along the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean. During fall 2007 and winter 2007-08, global weather patterns were influenced by La Niña, the abnormal cooling of ocean waters in that region.

La Niña was blamed, at least in part, for the record and near-record snows across much of the Inland Northwest last winter. Spokane International Airport came within about of inch of snow, 92.6 inches, from breaking the all-time record of 93.5 inches set in 1949-50.

Parts of North Idaho observed totals of 170 to well over 200 inches. More than 400 inches of snow was observed in the higher mountains of our region. Other parts of the northern U.S. were buried from extreme snowfalls in early 2008 as well.

The latest sea-surface data now shows a stretch of warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions. It is my opinion that we’re no longer seeing a La Niña, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. We’re now in a La Nada, the in-between event of La Niña and El Niño.

Speaking of El Niño, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event, many Australian and Japanese scientists are indicating that we could see this new phenomenon form along the equatorial regions by the upcoming fall season.

Right now, we’re in a transition between El Niño and La Niña. This La Nada pattern is beginning to bring drier conditions to the flood-ravaged areas of the central U.S., especially between I-80 and I-40. But, there is another battle between colder waters off the U.S. West Coast and the warmer waters near the Hawaiian Islands. This particular pattern may be responsible, at least in part, to the horrible weather extremes across the U.S.

If sea-surface temperatures continue to warm along the equatorial regions during this summer and upcoming fall season, conditions should be generally drier and warmer across the Inland Northwest. However, a full-blown drought still does not seem likely. There may be a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity than in recent summers, but they will be of short duration, the hit sand miss kind of rains that seldom spoil outdoor activities.

I see few, if any, afternoons this summer with readings above the century mark, but there will be numerous 90-degree days, particularly during the 23-day span from mid-July through the first week of August. We should see our first 90-degree day of the season this weekend.

If we see a new El Niño pattern, many of the Pacific storms would likely go to the south and into California by late this year. Therefore, I’m expecting snow totals to be near or below normal levels for the winter of 2008-09. Stay tuned.