10-day forecasts difficult to accurately predict

I received a couple of e-mails recently inquiring about my position on climate change, and why I hadn’t written a column about it yet.

There are several reasons I have stayed away from the topic. For one, it is extremely political no matter which “side” of the debate you are on. Secondly, as a meteorologist, the 100-year forecast is out of my realm of expertise.

I am more concerned with the current state of the atmosphere and how it might evolve in the short term. My primary time frame of interest ranges from the present to perhaps three or four days out. A climatologist, on the other hand, looks at the state of the atmosphere as an average over years, decades, and so on.

Finally, as a mother to three young children, I have to admit that I don’t have the time to pore over all the scientific papers regarding climate change and/or global warming. I get much of my information from the media just like everyone else. With that being said, since it seems like everyone else, scientist or not, has an opinion on climate change, I will offer a few thoughts.

Meteorologists work with computer models on a daily basis. Data from upper-air balloons, as well as hourly surface observations, are fed into various atmospheric modeling programs run by supercomputers. Throughout the day, these numerous computer models produce a myriad of forecast charts detailing different aspects of the atmosphere at a range of future time frames. One particular model, called the GFSX goes out to 240 hours – 10 days.

I can’t tell you the number of times meteorologists such as myself have perused the 10-day computer forecast for amusement. All sorts of dire weather situations have been predicted ranging from record breaking snow storms, hurricanes and heat waves. These situations rarely pan out.

Though certain trends can be discerned, I will be bold enough to say that no real meteorologist feels good about producing a detailed 10-day forecast for the public to see. We have so little faith in the computer model forecasts that far out. Television consultants compel us to continue putting out this kind of information because – accurate or not – it is what the viewers clamor for. Knowing the limits of our computer models to accurately portray the state of the atmosphere as little as 10 days out, I find it hard to swallow that longer-term climate forecasts are to be taken as a given.

Our atmosphere is dynamic, in a constant state of flux. I would expect that our climate is that way, too. It warms and cools in ways we cannot control.

Do humans have an influence? I think it would be naive to say that we don’t. It is the extent of that influence that I have yet to be convinced of. We have yet to figure out a way to influence the weather on a small scale, enough to bring rain to the parched Southeast or the fire ravaged West.

And I think as much time and money should be focused on improving short-term severe weather forecasts so that Boy Scouts don’t have to risk their lives on a weekend camping trip. For those groups who think that the latest rash of extreme weather can be linked solely to an overabundance of carbon dioxide, just one of several prevalent and naturally occurring greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, I have a great way for them to save the earth …. quit exhaling.