Anybody’s Pac-10 tourney
LOS ANGELES – The Pacific Life Pacific-10 Conference men’s basketball tournament, which begins this evening at the Staples Center, is truly a case of the haves versus the have-nots.
As in those who have an NCAA tournament berth in hand vs. those who don’t.
After tonight’s play-in games get out of the way, with No. 8 Washington (16-15, 7-11 in Pac-10 play) facing ninth-seeded Cal (15-14, 6-12) at 6 and No. 7 Arizona (18-13, 8-10) facing the Pac-10’s first 0-18 team, Oregon State (6-24) at 8:30, the win-and-you-just-might-ensure-you’re-in games can begin.
Most observers have regular-season champion UCLA (28-3, 16-2), Stanford (24-6, 13-5), Washington State (23-7, 11-7) and USC (20-10, 11-7) – all with winning conference records – as locks for the NCAA tournament. All those four seem to be playing for is seeding, which will be announced Sunday.
But their opponents Thursday are another story.
If seeds hold tonight, UCLA will meet Washington, Stanford will face Arizona and WSU and USC will play two bubble teams, Oregon (18-12, 9-9) and Arizona State (19-11, 9-9), respectively.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who has been dubbed the nation’s foremost “Bracketologist,” has six Pac-10 teams earning berths, adding Arizona – boasting a tough non-conference schedule and a high Ratings Percentage Index – and Oregon to the top four.
Arizona finished with a poorer Pac-10 mark than Arizona State, a team the Wildcats lost to twice but is outside looking in under Lunardi’s most-recent scenario.
That doesn’t sit well with at least one Pac-10 coach.
“That’s once again, one perspective,” Arizona State’s Herb Sendek said Tuesday of Lunardi’s projection. “That’s not necessarily the committee’s. It’s a matter of how you are going to attach different levels of importance. Another reasonable person would say, ‘Wait a second, as many things as you want to consider, nothing’s more important than head-to-head competition,’ it would seem.
“How they eventually sort it out is a tremendous task, an enormous undertaking, and really smart people, very reasonable people can come up with different answers at the end of the day.”
No matter what side of the bubble a team is sitting on, the season-ending tournament can either enhance an NCAA-selection outlook or prepare a team for the tournament.
Oregon was a bubble team last year. But the Ducks decided to take care of any anxiety by winning their way in, shooting their way to three consecutive wins and the conference’s automatic NCAA berth. They then rode that momentum to an Elite Eight appearance.
“A completely different scenario,” Oregon coach Ernie Kent said when asked if there were any carryover from last year’s run. “We approach (this tournament) like all the other conference teams. You try to win one game and go from there.”
Oregon’s first-round opponent this year is Washington State, one of the haves. But that doesn’t mean the Cougars are going to coast through the week.
“You want to play as many games as you can,” WSU coach Tony Bennett maintains. “Playing three in a row, playing for a conference championship, those things far outweigh the fatigue factor.
“Playing at a high level heading into the tournament, that’s very important. Most teams that have done well in the conference tournament have done well in the NCAA tournament.”
But facing one of the have-nots makes it tougher.
“They’re on the bubble you would say?” Bennett asked. “I would hope to think they are in, but I’m sure they want to win one more.
”(The Ducks) have their backs against the wall regarding postseason play. They’ll come out with everything. With this Pac-10 tournament, there are a lot of those scenarios playing out that way, like, ‘This team has got to get a win, perhaps, or they need it, they’re right there.’ “
That the Pac-10 has seven teams in contention for NCAA consideration doesn’t mean there are just seven teams who could win this week, at least not in Sendek’s mind.
“If our ninth seed can be a shot almost behind the backboard or behind the backboard from beating one of the favorites to win the national championship on the road, I think that speaks volumes,” said Sendek, of UCLA’s recent win over Cal on Josh Shipp’s last-second, behind-the-backboard game-winner.
Then he mentioned Washington’s win in Seattle against UCLA.
“If our eighth seed can beat our No. 1 seed, that speaks volumes,” Sendek said, before going on to defend his team’s credentials. “We play an 18-game (conference) schedule. It’s a gantlet.
“Now we’re going to play at least our 19th game this weekend. It’s been an incredible year for the Pac-10. If you start with those 19 games, then you start adding Maui, Xavier, and the Big 12 Challenge (all on ASU’s non-conference schedule), I don’t know how many more games you’re supposed to play, to be honest with you.”
Bennett doesn’t believe Sendek should be worried, no matter what happens Thursday. The WSU coach feels the conference deserves at least seven berths.
“We got six teams in last year, and I know they don’t look at it like that, but, to me, with the league being better this year, how could it not be the same or more?”
Maybe, maybe not.