Numbers add up to bad football
PULLMAN – There’s a number to remember this week leading up to Saturday’s Apple Cup: 119.
Why that number?
After all, it’s not the 119th renewal of the battle between Washington State and Washington. It’s the 101st.
There’s not 119 players playing. There’s not 119 charity events, or 119 sponsors or even 119 different derogatory nicknames for this year’s game, though it’s getting close.
No, there are 119 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision teams.
So when you look at the statistical rankings of 1-10 Washington State and 0-10 Washington, you just might notice how close to that magic number they are. And how often they are linked.
The Cougars, a 7.5-point underdog at home, actually hit that dubious number in a couple categories: third-down conversions (26.5 percent) and turnover margin (-2.18 per game).
The Huskies avoid the NCAA cellar except for one statistic: tackles for loss (3.8 per game) by their defense.
Looking through 20 major team statistics kept by the NCAA – the organization tracks 37 team statistical categories, ranging from the common (rush defense) to the esoteric (punt return yardage defense) – it’s striking how often the teams appear near each other.
The schools are within 10 statistical spots of each other in 13 of the 20 categories scrutinized, and in all of those at least one school is ranked in the triple digits.
There are only a couple statistics – fewest yards penalized, in which UW is eighth in the country at 37.4 while WSU is 117th with 76.4, and pass defense, where WSU is 46th with 193.7 yards per game and UW is 83rd with 224.9 – in which there is much separation between the two.
It’s no wonder it only took WSU coach Paul Wulff a cursory glance of game tape to see similarities.
“I haven’t seen a lot (of tape),” Wulff said Sunday. “They’ve got some young skill kids who are pretty athletic. But it’s similar, when you’ve got youth, to get them to consistently make plays is a tough thing to do.
“There are some similarities when you watch them and us.”
The stats bear that out.
Let’s just pick a handful of the major ones at random, with the pertinent statistic in parentheses:
Rushing offense: WSU is 115th in the nation (85.9 yards per game), UW 114th (86.4).
Passing offense: WSU is 104th in the nation (150.5 yards per game), UW 96th (177.1).
Rushing defense: WSU is 118th in the nation (266.6 yards per game), UW 116th (228.5).
Scoring defense: WSU is 118th in the nation (48.5 points per game), UW 116th (39.9).
Scoring offense: WSU is 118th in the nation (12.6 points per game), UW 117th (13.9).
Maybe that’s why Washington coach Tyrone Willingham, who will be coaching in his last Apple Cup (he’s 1-2) after being fired midway through this season, thinks Saturday’s game will be close.
“I just know it will come down to the end,” Willingham said Monday. “That’s what I know. Usually these games are exciting … and I imagine it will be coming right down to the last minutes, the last seconds.
“And something will happen to make it win or lose.”