It may be warm now, but just wait

It was a warm start to the month of October, with both Spokane and Coeur d’Alene seeing high temperatures into the 80s. No records were broken locally, but on Oct. 1 record highs were reported in Lewiston (88 degrees), LaCrosse (92 degrees) and Colville (87 degrees).

Despite the month’s balmy beginning, it is probably wise to start thinking about wintry weather. October has historically been the month of what I would call a free fall into the cool season. In both 2003 and 2006, October saw nights when the low temperatures dropped into the teens. By the end of this month, we will likely have experienced several days with highs only in the 40s.

Though fall has just begun, many folks are looking for predictions for the upcoming winter. I think it is pretty safe to say that we won’t see as much snow this winter as last. In case you forgot, Spokane received nearly 93 inches of snow last season and was just an inch shy of breaking the all-time record for snowfall. Coeur d’Alene blew through all its wintry records with snowfall totals of nearly 200 inches in parts of the city. Though seasonal snowfall totals have fluctuated quite a bit over the last two decades, data from the National Weather Service indicates that in the past 20 years there have not been two snowy winters back-to-back.

Last winter’s heavy snows were blamed in part on La Niña, the unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. In contrast, El Niño conditions often lead to a winter with above normal temperatures, and more rain rather than snow as a result. The equatorial Pacific is currently in what is called an ENSO neutral phase, where neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. This neutral phase is forecast to continue through the end of 2008. During the past 30 years, Spokane’s average winter snowfall during ENSO neutral conditions has been 49 inches, slightly higher than the 30-year winter snow average of 43.6 inches.

To offer a few other points of view, scientific and not, “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” predicts a colder and drier winter than normal, but with above-normal snow for our area. The Climate Predication Center’s outlook for the November through March period indicates generally above normal temperatures. Precipitation was a toss-up with indicators pointing neither to above nor below-normal values.