Looking like 2009 will come in with more snow

Though there are many sources for long-range forecasting, I’m not a big believer in the ability of anyone to pin down upcoming monthly snowfall totals.

The absence of a strong El Niño or La Niña leaves many forecasters without a strong indicator on how temperatures and precipitation will trend for a given season.

The official 30-day outlook for January, put out by the Climate Prediction Center, shows equal chances for above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. Even if we were to see average snowfall for the months of January, February and March, this season’s snowfall totals would again approach 90 inches. We will just have to wait and see, though midrange computer models are already pointing to a snowy beginning to 2009.

I wanted to quickly touch on a related topic – not the snow, but the cold and its effects on road conditions. I made the mistake on television last winter, of reporting above-freezing temperatures and telling motorists that the roads should be free of ice. Unfortunately, that was not the case and there were numerous collisions due to slick roads.

Though air temperatures that morning were above freezing by a couple of degrees, temperatures on the streets were obviously not. Official temperature readings are taken about 6 feet off the ground. Since cold air sinks, temperatures on the ground can be much colder, especially in the middle of winter when the ground beneath is frozen.

Don’t let temperatures in the mid-30s (though the thaw feels nice) give you a false sense of security about the chances for encountering ice. Snowy streets can also turn icy just from the effect of traffic. The weight of the cars on snow can cause melting due to compression, and this briefly melted snow can then refreeze into a layer of ice.