NASCAR swami reveals all

Unpredictable is the best way to describe what happened during the 2008 NASCAR season.

Few, perhaps outside of Tony Stewart’s circle of confidants, would have predicted that he’d enter 2009 as a team owner, split from Joe Gibbs Racing.

Few would have predicted that Petty Enterprises would merge (in the most technical sense of the word) with Gillett Evernham Motorsports, and that Ray Evernham, the team’s founder, would back away from the team’s day-to-day operations.

Few would have expected that Petty Enterprises wouldn’t make it to 2009 in one piece despite all the changes they made to their organization.

What does 2009 have in store for us? Probably more of the same. More specifically, though, with no crystal ball or tea-leaf expertise, I bring you five predictions for the 2009 season of NASCAR racing:

•5. At least one “full-time” car will shut down midseason like the No. 40 did last year:

This week Michael Waltrip said the No. 00, driven by David Reutimann, was sponsored about half the season. I asked if the car would run the full year, even if the team never found sponsorship.

“We just look at it as part of the investment of the future of our team,” Waltrip said. “David’s obviously a fast race car driver that can win races at the Cup level.”

•4. One of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars will threaten to make the Chase:

I won’t go so far as to say they will. Even with great people in place and great resources available, it’s tough to compete with the big boys. But Stewart and Ryan Newman are both accomplished drivers and they have talented people behind the scenes.

•3. At least one race this season will have a field smaller than 43 cars:

And the world will continue to spin on its axis. The most amusing hysterics of this off-season were those caused by the thought that car counts would drop and NASCAR would be ruined. I’m sure nobody in Daytona Beach or Charlotte wants car counts to drop.

But, come on. Fewer cars would eliminate some of the noise. Races at smaller tracks might even get more interesting.

•2. Joey Logano will pick up a top-five finish at one of the races in either Daytona or Talladega:

These races, especially Talladega, are total wild cards and typically places where someone with great equipment and the ability to stay out of trouble can succeed. Logano isn’t a wrecker and he’ll be in that fantastic No. 20 equipment.

•1. The haves still will dominate:

Only six teams won races in 2008 and just four of those teams – Roush Fenway, Joe Gibbs Racing, Richard Childress Racing and Hendrick Motorsports – had multiple drivers winning races. That number won’t change much in 2009.

The lack of testing at NASCAR tracks will make it even harder for struggling or new teams to break into the fold. Some have speculated that this season’s testing ban will open up the field a little bit and temper the advantage the superteams had.

I tend to think it won’t make much of a difference at all. The car is the real X-factor and the hardest hit will be drivers in new cars or with new teams.