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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Slow solar activity could be causing colder spring

Randy Mann

Since late 2008, solar storms, or sunspots, have been few and far between on our sun.

Some scientists are concerned that the recent decline in our sun’s activity is unusual and could persist. Others say that our sun is expected to increase in sunspots based on previous long-term cycles, but those numbers were earlier predicted to pick up by the fall of 2008, which didn’t happen.

Some experts say that the sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle. This is called a solar minimum. It’s the period of quiet that separates one solar max from another.

During solar maximums, huge sunspots and intense solar flares create auroras. Satellites are damaged due to high radiation and there are numerous radio blackouts. This occurred in 2000, 2001 and in mid-2005.

Within the last 30 days, there were only three days with reported sunspots. This is a huge contrast to the extremely active sun in the late 1990s and early 2000s where sunspot numbers were averaging about 150 to 200 per month. Since late last year, the average number of solar storms has been between three and six per month.

The lack of solar storms and a slight decrease in energy output from the sun may be partially to blame for our colder and snowier winter and spring seasons in the Inland Northwest. In 2009, the Spokane International Airport has observed below-normal average temperatures. In January, it was 1.4 degrees below normal, February was 2.0 degrees below normal, March is a cold 4.9 degrees below average, April was 1.2 degrees below normal and, as of early Tuesday, May was 2.4 degrees below average levels.

By early next week, we may finally see highs in the 80s. It’s also possible that the 90-degree temperatures could arrive by Memorial Day, but the best chances for those warm temperatures are around mid-to-late June.

Longer term, I’m still predicting a rather short but hot and dry summer season in the Inland Northwest. The warmest weather should be near the July 7-15 full moon cycle. Don’t be too surprised to see an afternoon or two during this week with readings near 100.

The fall of 2009 will likely be wetter and cooler than normal. It’s possible that our next winter season may see above-normal amounts of snow, especially if solar activity remains low and there is a cooler-than-average sea-surface temperature pattern, La Nina, in the south-central Pacific Ocean. But, La Nina has weakened considerably over the last month. More details next week.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com, or go to www.longrangeweather.com.