IMF says economy is recovering

WASHINGTON — The world economic recovery is set to continue over the next two years and will not be derailed by the earthquake in Japan or the surge in commodity prices, according to the results of the latest global checkup released by the International Monetary Fund on Monday.

The world economy is set to grow at a 4.4 percent rate in 2011, down slightly from the 5 percent rate in 2010. Growth will accelerate slightly to a 4.5 percent rate in 2012.

In the U.S., growth will stay at 2.8 percent this year before accelerating to 2.9 percent next year.

Fears that higher commodity prices will lead to 1970s-style stagflation are overblown, the IMF said.

“Inflation may well be higher for some time but … we do not expect a major adverse effect on growth,” the IMF said.

The macroeconomic impact from the earthquake in Japan is also expected to be limited.

Overall, the downside risks to economic growth have risen, the agency said in its biannual World Economic Outlook. Additional disruptions to oil supplies would be a concern.

The “two-speed” global recovery remains firmly in place, with advanced economies lagging behind emerging and developing market economies. Advanced countries are likely to grow at about a 2.4 percent rate over the next year while the emerging economies expand at a much higher 6.5 percent rate.

Over the next two years, the Group of 7 leading nations must cut deficits, the report said. In order to still grow, they must sell products overseas.

The emerging market economies must rely less on demand in the G-7 countries and more on their own domestic demand, the IMF said.