Hurricane season tough to forecast
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The tough task of guessing what hurricane season will look like could be even more difficult this year for forecasters, who won’t be able to rely on the relatively predictable forces known as El Niño and La Niña.
So far, the National Hurricane Center in Miami is predicting that the season that begins today will be busier than normal, with as many as 18 named tropical storms, three to six of them major hurricanes.
El Niño and La Niña – warming and cooling trends in the ocean that can either rev up hurricanes or suppress them – are expected to be essentially neutral, complicating any predictions. The last time temperatures were neutral was 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita hammered the Gulf Coast with lethal results.
“With a strong La Niña or El Niño year, the forecast is much easier,” said Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. “Since we don’t have a strong signal toward El Niño or La Niña, there’s somewhat more uncertainty in trying to determine how strong this season will be.”
La Niña helped make last year the third-most active hurricane season on record, said meteorologist Jeff Masters, who writes a popular weather blog. Last year, there were 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes, including Earl, which sideswiped North Carolina just before Labor Day weekend and was the first hurricane to threaten New England since 1991.
The seasonal average is 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two them major.
Meteorologists say La Niña also contributed to this past winter’s barrage of blizzards in the northern United States, heavy summer flooding in Australia and recent tornadoes in the Southeastern U.S. But those events are no indication of what hurricane season might be like.
Meteorologists use all of these patterns, tools and data to predict the storm season, which runs through Nov. 30.
The hurricanes could inflict more misery on places like Louisiana and Alabama that have been plagued by flooding and deadly twisters this spring.
Ultimately, experts say, people should take note of the seasonal forecasts but not rely on them. Having an emergency kit and an evacuation plan is important even if the season isn’t expected to be active.