Dan Caesar’s Week 12 NFL picks
Browns at Falcons
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Cleveland 6-4, 2-2 away. Atlanta 4-6, 2-2 home.
Line: ATL by 3 O/U: 47 1/2
Synopsis: Cleveland gets back WR Josh Gordon, who had been suspended all season, to face the league’s worst pass ‘D.’ Atlanta has won two in a row and finally is showing signs of life and its passing attack is No. 6. But one simply can’t trust the Falcons.
Pick: Browns 24-21
Titans at Eagles
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)
Records: Tennessee 2-8, 1-4 away. Philadelphia 7-3, 5-0 home.
Line: PHI by 11 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Philadelphia tries to bounce back after its 33- point pounding in Green Bay and gets a good spot as the Eagles are at home, where they’ve won their last nine regular-season games. The Titans rank 31st in offense – look for the Eagles’ ‘D’ to tee off.
Pick: Eagles 33-17
Lions at Patriots
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Detroit 7-3, 3-2 away. New England 8-2, 5-0 home.
Line: NE by 7 O/U: 48
Synopsis: Dandy matchup as Detroit brings in its top-rated ‘D,’ one that allows just 15.6 points per game, to face the NFL’s second-highest scoring team – the Pats average 32.3 points per game. In the Super Bowl, the better defense has prevailed over high-flying attacks. But this isn’t the Super Bowl.
Pick: Patriots 27-21
Packers at Vikings
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Green Bay 7-3, 2-3 away. Minnesota 4-6, 2-2 home.
Line: GB by 9 O/U: 49 1/2
Synopsis: Green Bay has surpassed 50 points in its last two outings and averages a league-high 33 points, but often after such big back-to-back outbursts a letdown follows and it could happen here. Red-hot Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will face the Vikings’ No. 6 pass ‘D.’
Pick: Packers 27-20
Jaguars at Colts
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Jacksonville 1-9, 0-5 away. Indianapolis 6-4, 3-2 home.
Line: IND by 14 O/U: 50 1/2
Synopsis: Indianapolis will be gunning to bounce back from its loss at home to New England, and unleashes the NFL’s Andrew Luck-led top-rated aerial attack on the No. 26 pass ‘D.’ The Colts should not be seriously threatened by a turnover- plagued team that averages just 15.8 points per game.
Pick: Colts 37-17
Bengals at Texans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Cincinnati 6-3-1, 2-2 away. Houston 5-5, 2-2 home.
Line: HOU by 2 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Texans QB Ryan Mallett makes his second NFL start after a workmanlike performance in a win last week vs. Cleveland. Now he faces the No. 20 pass ‘D.’ Meanwhile, Cincinnati busted out of a funk last week by winning at New Orleans and QB Andy Dalton operates vs. the No. 30 ‘D.’
Pick: Bengals 27-23
Bucs at Bears
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Tampa Bay 2-8, 2-3 away. Chicago 4-6, 1-3 home.
Line: CHI by 5 1/2 O/U: 46 1/2
Synopsis: Chicago QB Jay Cutler faces the No. 30 pass ‘D’ on what could be a rainy afternoon. But the key here will be how the Bears, who allow a league-high 29 points per game, contain the 28th-rated Tampa offense.
Pick: Bears 30-20
Rams at Chargers
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Records: St. Louis 4-6, 2-3 away. San Diego 6-4, 4-1 home.
Line: SD by 5 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Chargers QB Philip Rivers is expected to play despite nursing a rib injury as he faces a ‘D’ that held high-octane Denver to seven points last week in an upset win. However, the Rams have not won two in a row and face a team allowing just 19.2 points per game.
Pick: Chargers 20-13
Dolphins at Broncos
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (CBS)
Records: Miami 6-4, 3-2 away. Denver 7-3, 5-0 home.
Line: DEN by 7 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Denver tries to get it going again after losing two of three, but those were on the road and the Broncos are back home where they’re unbeaten. But the Broncos are banged up and Miami has the NFL’s No. 2 ‘D,’ allowing just 302.5 yards per game. Look for Denver to be extremely focused here.
Pick: Broncos 30-17
Redskins at 49ers
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Washington 3-7, 1-4 away. San Francisco 6-4, 2-2 home.
Line: SF by 9 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: Washington has internal strife surrounding QB Robert Griffin III, a bad situation heading west to face the NFL’s No. 4 ‘D.’ The 49ers will try to get their No. 7 ground game going early, but could be caught looking past lowly Washington to a Thanksgiving showdown with bitter NFC West rival Seattle, keeping this one close.
Pick: 49ers 23-17
Cowboys at Giants
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: Dallas 7-3, 4-0 away. New York 3-7, 2-3 home.
Line: DAL by 3 1/2 O/U: 47 1/2
Synopsis: Dallas is undefeated on the road and unleashes its DeMarco Murray-led ground attack, which ranks second in the NFL, vs. the No. 30 run ‘D.’ But New York will be pumped for prime time, and Dallas also could be looking ahead to Thanksgiving matchup with Philadelphia.
Pick: Giants 23-20
Bills vs. Jets
Monday: 4 p.m., at Detroit
Records: Buffalo 5-5, 3-2 away. New York 2-8, 2-4 home.
Line: BUF by 2 1/2 O/U: 41 1/2
Synopsis: The game has been moved to Detroit because of the massive snowstorm in the Buffalo area. The Bills rely on their sixth-rated ‘D,’ which faces the NFL’s worst passing attack that now is run by Michael Vick.
Pick: Bills 20-16
Ravens at Saints
Monday: 5:30 p.m.
Records: Baltimore 6-4, 2-3 away. New Orleans 4-6, 3-2 home.
Line: NO by 3 O/U: 50
Synopsis: New Orleans is in danger of three straight home losses for the first time since ’05 and is under .500 – but tied for first in the woeful NFC South. However, the Saints thrive at home in prime time, winning 14 in a row. Baltimore is just 21st vs. the pass, which plays perfectly for the Saints.
Pick: Saints 30-23