Dan Caesar’s Week 7 NFL picks
Bengals at Colts
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Cincinnati 3-1-1, 1-1 road. Indianapolis 4-2, 2-1 home.
Line: IND by 3 O/U: 50
Synopsis: Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck leads the NFL’s top offense and will face the Bengals’ defense which ranks 28th. So the key: Will Cincinnati’s No. 5 offense be able to keep pace with the Colts? Doubtful.
Pick: Colts 33-27
Titans at Redskins
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Tennessee 2-4, 1-2 road. Washington 1-5, 1-2 home.
Line: WAS by 6 O/U: 46 1/2
Synopsis: Tennessee has the No. 20 ‘D’ and has been blown out in its last two road games. Titans QB Jake Locker (thumb) hopes to return after being sidelined last week. The Redskins, despite their woes, are seventh in offense.
Pick: Redskins 30-23
Dolphins at Bears
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Miami 2-3, 1-1 road. Chicago 3-3, 0-2 home.
Line: CHI by 3 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Chicago unleashes its tall receivers against the Dolphins’ short secondary players. Miami is now without RB Knowshon Moreno (knee) for the rest of the season. Lamar Miller takes over in the backfield.
Pick: Bears 37-17
Browns at Jaguars
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Cleveland 3-2, 1-1 road. Jacksonville 0-6, 0-2 home.
Line: CLE by 5 O/U: 45
Synopsis: Cleveland is soaring, having ripped Pittsburgh last week after a record comeback win at Tennessee. But this young team is subject to a letdown and with the Browns a solid favorite here, this looks like the spot. Jacksonville remains winless but has improved and rookie QB Blake Bortles faces the No. 29 ‘D.’
Pick: Jaguars 23-20
Panthers at Packers
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Carolina 3-2-1, 1-1-1 road. Green Bay 4-2, 2-0 home.
Line: GB by 6 1/2 O/U: 49 1/2
Synopsis: Green Bay has won three in a row and QB Aaron Rodgers is clicking, but the offense ranks just 26th. However, the Packers produce 26.8 points a game and face the No. 26 ‘D.’ The Green Bay secondary is banged up and QB Cam Newton can keep Carolina close here.
Pick: Packers 30-24
Falcons at Ravens
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Atlanta 2-4, 0-3 road. Baltimore 4-2, 2-1 home.
Line: BAL by 6 1/2 O/U: 49 1/2
Synopsis: After blistering Tampa Bay last week behind five TD passes from Joe Flacco, Baltimore faces the No. 29 pass ‘D.’ And this is the first of four consecutive out-of-town games for Atlanta, which is the designated “home” team against the Lions next week in London.
Pick: Ravens 23-17
Vikings at Bills
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Minnesota 2-4, 1-2 road. Buffalo 3-3, 1-2 home.
Line: BUF by 5 1/2 O/U: 42 1/2
Synopsis: Opposite philosophies here. Minnesota recently turned to rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, but he hasn’t thrown a TD pass. Buffalo has benched young QB E.J. Manuel in favor of veteran Kyle Orton, who hasn’t exactly been scintillating. Buffalo has the NFL’s top run ‘D,’ forcing Bridgewater to throw.
Pick: Bills 24-17
Saints at Lions
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: New Orleans 2-3, 0-3 road. Detroit 4-2, 2-1 home.
Line: DET by 2 1/2 O/U: 47 1/2
Synopsis: Detroit unleashes the NFL’s top-rated ‘D’ on New Orleans’ No. 2 offense, but the Saints could be minus key TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder). New Orleans has lost eight of its last nine on the road. The Lions probably will be without key WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) again.
Pick: Lions 27-23
Chiefs at Chargers
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m. (CBS)
Records: Kansas City 2-3, 1-2 road. San Diego 5-1, 3-0 home.
Line: SD by 4 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: San Diego QB Philip Rivers has had three straight games with three TD passes, but faces the No. 8 pass ‘D’ here as the Chargers go for their sixth straight win. Kansas City comes off its bye and rested RB Jamaal Charles should be strong vs. the NFL’s No. 23 run ‘D.’ Upset very possible here.
Pick: Chiefs 24-23
Giants at Cowboys
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (Fox 28)
Records: New York 3-3, 1-2 road. Dallas 5-1, 2-1 home.
Line: DAL by 6 1/2 O/U: 48
Synopsis: Dallas is flying high after its upset win in Seattle and now faces inconsistent New York – which was blanked in Philadelphia last week after scoring at least 30 points in its previous three outings. NY’s No. 18 run ‘D’ faces the DeMarco Murray-led No. 1 ground attack.
Pick: Cowboys 33-23
Cardinals at Raiders
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Arizona 4-1, 1-1 road. Oakland 0-5, 0-3 home.
Line: ARI by 3 1/2 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: Arizona QB Carson Palmer is set for his second start after returning from shoulder problems and will face Oakland’s No. 11 pass ‘D.’ But the Raiders are No. 31 vs. the run, so Palmer would be wise to try to get RB Andre Ellington going early. Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr comes off a four-TD passing outing to face the NFL’s worst pass ‘D.’
Pick: Raiders 23-20
49ers at Broncos
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: San Francisco 4-2, 2-1 road. Denver 4-1, 3-0 home.
Line: DEN by 6 1/2 O/U: 50
Synopsis: A dandy matchup, with Denver’s potent Peyton Manning-led attack facing the NFL’s No. 2 ‘D’ – but that 49ers unit is missing key LB Patrick Willis (toe). SF is also hurt because it loves to use its ground game, but Denver is No. 4 vs. the run. Manning needs two TD passes to tie Brett Favre’s NFL career mark. Book it.
Pick: Broncos 26-17
Texans at Steelers
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: Houston 3-3, 1-2 road. Pittsburgh 3-3, 1-1 home.
Line: PIT by 3 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: Pittsburgh loves to run the ball, but also should try to get QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing early because Houston’s pass ‘D’ is No. 28. Houston should be revved up as it last played 10 days ago.
Pick: Texans 24-20