Kings, coho, pinks coming back strong

Thu., March 19, 2015

The Spokesman-Review

End of the run?

The past 3 years of excellent salmon returns are owed to a complex combination of improved river habitat, excellent ocean conditions, good spring runoff to usher smolts to sea and adequate summer flows to keep water temperatures cool enough for salmon survival.

At least one of those requirements appears to be jeopardizing future runs.

The region’s lack of snowpack, including record lows in portions of the Cascades, means less runoff followed by shallower river levels and higher than average summer water temperatures, experts say.

“It’s bad news for salmon,” said James Helfield, associate professor of environmental science at Western Washington University.

When water temperatures climb above 63.6 degrees Fahrenheit, it negatively affects the salmon’s metabolism, he said.

“The snowpack effect can coincide with ocean changes affecting temperature, currents, upwelling effects on food supply,” Dr. David Beatty of the Nooksack Salmon Enhancement Association told the WWU newspaper, The Western Front. “There will be effects on all freshwater life stages of salmon.”

“We are already planning for some pretty dismal conditions this summer,” said Tom Chance, a Lummi hatchery biologist. “We are considering trapping adult chinook lower in the river since they may not be able to come all the way upstream.”

Washington’s last unusually mild winter occurred in 2004, Helfield said.

Meantime, marine scientists are forecasting deteriorating ocean conditions likely to impact salmon.

Early forecasts for the 2015 runs of chinook, coho and pink indicate an excellent 2015 salmon season in the Columbia River system and Puget Sound, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife reports.

The Columbia’s sockeye run also appears to shaping up well.

State and federal biologists are forecasting a whopping run of 900,200 fall chinook salmon – third largest on record – will enter the river this year.

Roughly 70 percent of the chinook run is expected to be “upriver brights” headed for areas above Bonneville Dam, including the Hanford Reach and Snake River.

The record-high return was 1.26 million in 2013, followed by 1.15 million last year.

A strong run of 777,000 coho salmon in the ocean is destined for the Columbia River. Although that’s a strong return, it would be about 20 percent below the huge numbers of 2014.

The strong returns of kings and coho set the stage for an exceptional season for the August-September Buoy 10 fishery at the mouth of the river. Marinas are selling out their slips for August and guides are booking up, officials said.

More than 6.5 million pink salmon are expected to return to Puget Sound this year, which is comparable to the bumper crop that returned in 2013. Most pink salmon return to Washington’s waters only in odd-numbered years.

More than 390,000 sockeye are forecast to return to the Upper Columbia, including 106,700 for the Wenatchee River and 285,500 for the Okanogan River.

The forecasts are not perfect, but sometimes they err in pleasantly surprising ways.

Last year, state fisheries managers predicted an Okanogan River run of 282,500 sockeye, but the actual return was 523,700.

If this year’s sockeye returns exceed the forecast as the actual runs did in 2014, by almost 54 percent, it could be another banner year for sockeye anglers.

The seasons for ocean salmon fishing will be set in April by the Pacific Fishery Management Council.