NFL Week 4 preview

6: Line: NYJ by 1 1/2 O/U: 42

Kickoff: 10 a.m. Line: IND by 8 O/U: 47 1/2

Outlook: Recent history suggests Andrew Luck (17-2 straight up vs. AFC South) and Colts cover spread, but the eye test (see: Titans scoring 27 unanswered last week) says they’re not good enough to be a near double-digit favorite. Pick: Jaguars

1: Outlook: The 9-0 Falcons? They have one of the most favorable stretches of games I think I’ve seen: vs. Houston, vs. Washington, at New Orleans, at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, at San Francisco. The Falcons win this one big. Pick: Falcons

Kickoff: 10 a.m. Line: CAR by 3 O/U: 40

Outlook: Tampa Bay returns home, which should be a good thing, right? Maybe not: Lovie Smith has yet to win there as Bucs coach (0-9). Cam Newton may not be old enough to get certain calls, but he’s good enough to beat the Bucs. Pick: Panthers

1: Outlook: The Bills’ defense, led by tackle Marcell Dareus, is allowing a league-low 74 yards on the ground and will control this game. The Giants are in for a long day in Buffalo as Tyrod “T-Mobile” Taylor – one of the season’s biggest surprises – sprints up and down the field. Bills win this one by double digits. Pick: Bills

Kickoff: 10 a.m. Line: OAK by 3 O/U: 44 1/2

Outlook: The Bears punted on every possession last week! How Raiders-esque of them. But the 2015 Raiders are crushing stereotypes. After winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2012, they’re a favorite on the road. The Bears are a mess and Oakland has too many offensive weapons. Pick: Raiders

1: Outlook: This is the toughest game of the week to call because both teams are so enigmatic. The Redskins showed in the first two weeks that they’re a tough out at home. Despite winning last week, the Eagles’ offense wasn’t inspiring, and I think the Redskins’ defense controls this game. Pick: Redskins

Kickoff: 10 a.m. Line: CIN by 3 1/2 O/U: 44

Outlook: The Bengals have been one of the surest bets thus far. One of seven undefeated teams in the NFL, they’re also 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Andy Dalton, who is 22-10-1 straight up at home, has another big game against a Chiefs team playing back-to-back road games on a short week. Pick: Bengals

1: Outlook: San Diego returns home after back-to-back road losses, and you have to think it will take its anger out on Cleveland. Philip Rivers enjoys playing in sunny San Diego. He’s 54-23 straight up at home and 38-37 on the road for his career. Pick: Chargers

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (Fox) Line: GB by 7 1/2 O/U: 48

Outlook: If the locker room at Levi’s Stadium isn’t a good fit for Aaron Rodgers, he should let someone know. It’s a safe bet the Pack will be back there for Super Bowl 50. In the ’90s, with Brett Favre and Steve Young, this game would’ve been can’t-miss. In 2015, with Rodgers (10 TDs, 0 INTs) opposing Colin Kaepernick (2 TDs, 4 INTs), it’s a mismatch. Pick: Packers

1: Outlook: Denver’s defense is going to dominate this game. It’s allowing NFL lows in yards per game (259) and passing yards (176). The Vikings’ offense averages 150 yards passing, the fewest in the NFL. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will make it a long day for Teddy Bridgewater. Pick: Broncos

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. Line: ARI by 7 O/U: 43 1/2

Outlook: If the Rams lost by 14 at Washington, how can they compete against one of the best home teams? Arizona is 15-3 straight up in desert under Bruce Arians. Pick: Cardinals

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC) Line: NO by 3 O/U: 47 1/2

Outlook: This line opened at Saints -7 and quickly dropped. The Saints are no longer a dominant home team. I like Dallas’ O-line and three-headed rushing attack to wear down New Orleans. I’m setting the over/under on shots of Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan yelling from the sideline at 47. Pick: Cowboys