Boehner confronts choices, none of them easy, to avoid government shutdown

WASHINGTON – Here we go again: House Speaker John Boehner is maneuvering to avoid another U.S. government shutdown amid conservative demands that could stymie any solution and undermine his grip on the gavel.

Boehner must decide how to keep federal agencies running when existing funds expire Sept. 30 – or whether he’ll heed fellow Republicans’ calls to defund Planned Parenthood and keep limits on federal spending.

“If he was coal, he’d be a diamond already,” said a Boehner loyalist, Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, regarding the pressure on the speaker.

Here are possible paths ahead and outcomes:

Passing a short-term spending bill

Boehner has said a stopgap bill to extend current spending levels and keep the government running into this fall will be needed. He hasn’t committed to the duration or other terms of such a must-pass “continuing resolution,” including policy add-ons like Planned Parenthood defunding.

Such a short-term bill would allow more time to negotiate on a longer-term agreement with President Barack Obama, who says he would veto any across-the-board spending cuts or Planned Parenthood defunding.

The rub is that more than three dozen House Republicans signed a letter insisting they won’t support any spending bill unless it halts funding for Planned Parenthood. Boehner then might have to seek Democratic votes to get a measure passed.

Boehner backs defunding, even though it’s D.O.A. in Senate

Boehner might decide he needs to give conservative Republicans a chance to pass a spending bill that eliminates Planned Parenthood funds. If he does, the measure probably wouldn’t reach the president’s desk anyway.

A separate defunding bill

Boehner also could pursue a separate mechanism to defund Planned Parenthood that would avoid a shutdown while allowing Republicans who oppose the organization to make a stand.

Rep. Mick Mulvaney of South Carolina, a founder of the conservative House Freedom Caucus of about 40 members, said Boehner’s leadership team is discussing alternatives during “listening sessions” with members. No definite proposal has emerged, he said.

Ideas include transferring Medicaid funds from Planned Parenthood to other women’s health facilities “so that the overall commitment to women’s health is the same,” Mulvaney said. Obama would likely veto such a bill.

Boehner turns to Democrats again

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi predicts Boehner will need help from Democrats to pass spending legislation. That’s how lawmakers resolved the 16-day shutdown in 2013, which stemmed from Republicans’ effort to defund Obamacare.

Now, conservatives’ “extreme ideology” regarding Planned Parenthood is handing leverage to House Democrats, Pelosi told reporters last week. Providing votes to pass a short-term spending measure will aid Democrats in negotiations on loosening federal spending limits under the 2011 Budget Control Act, she said.

Speaker Boehner’s future?

Some Republicans have challenged Boehner’s leadership, and in July, Republican Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina filed a longshot procedural move that could be used to take away the speaker’s gavel.

That frustration with Boehner has festered since he turned to Democratic votes to end the 2013 shutdown. Mulvaney didn’t deny a sense of unease over what Boehner will do this time.

“It relates to the number of times where he’s reached out to Democrats before reaching out to conservatives,” he said. This time around “I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that we need Democrats” to pass a short-term spending bill.

Still, getting such a measure through the Senate and signed into law may be another matter entirely.