Now, Iowa will get its say
DES MOINES, Iowa – Now real voters will finally get their say.
Will they caucus Monday for a bombastic billionaire or a self-described Democratic socialist, outcomes unthinkable just months ago? Or will more familiar campaign characters prevail?
Iowans’ answers could illuminate the most unpredictable presidential race in a generation.
More than a dozen Republican candidates, and three Democrats, have spent weeks here facing a barrage of voter anger and confusion. After the caucus, we’ll know which candidates can best corral that frustration into votes.
But in these late hours, who will those candidates be?
“I just don’t know,” said Don Kass, Republican chairman of Plymouth County, Iowa. “I’ve been wrong about just about everything for a year.”
Said Dubuque County Democratic Chairman Walt Pregler: “I’d hate to predict the outcome. The game is different this time.”
Donald Trump led with the support of 28 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Poll, released Saturday afternoon. He was followed by Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent asking Democrats for their nomination, was challenging Hillary Clinton right down to the wire.
Clinton and Sanders were neck and neck in the late poll, with Clinton drawing 45 percent and Sanders 42 percent.
If both Trump and Sanders win, Iowans will have said something profound: Disgust with Washington is so high that candidates well outside the mainstream are worth the risk.
But pollsters, and the pros in Iowa, offer a warning: Surveys can’t tell us how many Iowans will caucus or how they might change their minds in the final hours before the caucuses kick off at 7 p.m. Monday local time.
Trump and Sanders will rely on first-time voters, so a high turnout helps their campaigns.
Whatever the result, the anger and frustration of Iowa voters is a certainty.
“Clearly, voters and activists are disaffected,” said Barbara Trish, a Grinnell College political science professor.
“It’s an extraordinary time.”
Republicans
Donald Trump’s unlikely candidacy remains the story of the 2016 presidential campaign.
The flamboyant, combative TV star and businessman ranks as the clear favorite here, despite vastly underspending his Republican opponents in the lead-up to Monday.
“Trump is real,” said Trudy Caviness, Republican Party chairwoman in Wapello County, Iowa.
Disaffected and upset Iowans crowd Trump rallies, whooping as he promises to force Mexico to build a wall on its U.S. border. His free-association, politically incorrect remarks serve as a tonic for thousands of voters.
Trump “has the passion this country needs,” said Savannah Jones, a student at Iowa State University in Ames.
Rival campaigns marvel at Trump’s ability to dominate the free-media landscape through endorsements such as Sarah Palin’s or his abrupt decision to skip the last Republican debate and stage a benefit for veterans.
But more than any other candidate, Trump relies on his outsized media presence to draw first-time voters to Republican caucuses. He appears to lack the other tools of traditional caucus campaigns: extensive phone banks, volunteers, door-to-door canvassers.
If Trump’s campaign stumbles, Cruz stands ready to step in. He looks strong where Trump appears weak: His organization is considered the best in the state.
The senator followed the traditional Iowa playbook by courting religious conservatives, landing the endorsements of prominent ministers and talk show host Glenn Beck.
“His Christian values, his religious liberty … pro-life, he just speaks the truth,” Denise Hays said at a Cruz rally in Ankeny.
Cruz and Trump share one important trait – they’re considered outsiders, an enormously important attribute in this unusual year. Rubio, by contrast, seeks a respectable finish by arguing he’s in a better position to defeat the Democratic nominee.
In 2016, though, electability gets you the bronze medal. Gold and silver may be out of reach for Rubio, and for the other GOP candidates.
Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum have spent weeks in the state, to little effect. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has largely ignored Iowa, betting instead on New Hampshire. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush made a late effort here, largely with millions for TV ads, but he isn’t expected to come close to a top-three finish.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson may be a late surprise, although his front-runner status ended some weeks ago. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is moving up in the polls in New Hampshire, may also finish in the top five in Iowa.
Onetime Hewlett- Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has some organization here and may exceed low expectations. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky hopes for a large student turnout, always a gamble in Iowa.
Democrats
Even with nearly 20 years as chairman of the Democratic Party in Iowa’s most populous county, Tom Henderson said he couldn’t tell what was happening this year.
Sanders’ people are largely younger and new to party politics. Many come as independents who can sign up as Democrats on Monday night. These are party outsiders.
Interviews with party chairmen from nine of the state’s 11 largest counties find them inevitably referring to 2008. That year, it appeared Clinton had a fast track to the nomination.
She brought scores of workers to the state, typically young people paying their dues in Iowa with an expectation that would land them jobs in Washington.
But then-Sen. Barack Obama attracted true believers, inspired more by his candidacy than their career hopes. Obama won Iowa going away and ultimately outdistanced Clinton in the months of primaries that followed.
Old Iowa political hands see a similar, if not identical, contrast today. Clinton clearly learned the lessons of eight years ago. Much of her ground campaign is staffed by veterans of other Iowa campaigns. And she garners particular excitement from older female voters, who see her as their best chance to elect a woman to the White House in their lifetimes.
But Sanders, a seemingly cranky 74-year-old obsessed with economic inequality, musters a certain mojo of warmhearted cool. He’s a hit on college campuses – after all, he’s promising free tuition at public colleges – along with young and independent voters more broadly. Clinton typically draws hundreds at public appearances; Sanders gets thousands. As with Obama in 2008, many of his volunteers came from out of state to pitch in.
Iowa’s Democratic caucus rules may favor Clinton. The number of delegates from any precinct is determined before the first voter shows up. Sanders’ greatest support gravitates toward college towns. But that concentrates his numbers into precincts that can yield only so many delegates.
A handful of county chairmen have endorsed former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Although he trails in the polls by a mile, they say he shouldn’t be counted out. John Kerry went from a distant third to winning the caucuses seemingly overnight in 2004.
No one can predict the impact Iowa will have on the eventual nominee in either party. While some losing candidates are almost certain to drop out after Iowa, the eventual winner here doesn’t always capture the nomination.
All the top-tier candidates can claim plausible paths to the nomination after Iowa returns to normal.
For now, the rest of the nation awaits its turn in the Mixmaster. Imagine Cruz or Trump in a November race against Sanders, for example, and buckle up.
The candidates represent potential presidencies dramatically different from anything a living American has seen, a fact the campaigns boast about.
The mere possibility of such a matchup has billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a former three-term mayor of New York, launching trial balloons about an independent or third-party run for the White House.
But – if nothing else – Iowa’s results will help us understand whether both parties’ elites can still dictate nominees. With just a few hours to go, the answer seems to be no.
“It’s all about the outsider. They’re the frustration candidates,” said Chris Larimer, a political scientist at the University of Northern Iowa.