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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

June sizzles under El Nino warming

Two days of record-setting June heat and another hot day in store for Tuesday appear to be the work of the El Nino phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, according to forecasters in Spokane.

The current El Nino, which started last year, is now considered one of the two strongest on record since climate scientists started keeping track in 1950, said Ron Miller, science and operations officer for the National Weather Service in Spokane.

The Inland Northwest broiled in June 2015, with triple-digit temperatures on two consecutive days late in the month. That was when El Nino was kicking into gear.

The average temperature for June 2015 was 9.3 degrees above normal.

The 2015 June heat set the stage for the worst wildfire season in Washington history last year and helped worsen a severe drought.

Miller said he suspects El Nino may continue to bring hot weather through this summer.

“I would feel safe saying there is a good chance that a strong El Nino will result in a warmer-than-normal summer in the Northwest,” he said.

However, Miller said, looking ahead in a weather outlook “is not an absolute and a sure thing.”

So far this month, Spokane has been more than 10 degrees above normal.

A daily record of 95 degrees was set at Spokane International Airport on Sunday, breaking the record of 94 that had stood since 1882.

On Monday, the record was broken again with a high of 96. The previous record for June 6 was 93 in 1970.

Moses Lake and other locations in the Columbia Basin had triple-digit heat Sunday and Monday.

An expected high of 93 in Spokane on Tuesday would fall short of the record of 95 set in 1931. The average temperature in early June is 71 for a high and 49 for a low.

This April was 7.7 degrees warmer than normal, and May was 3.5 degrees above average.

The staff at the Spokane bureau of the weather service has been looking at previous El Nino years and discovered that the summer of 1998 also was excessively hot all the way through mid-September. The mercury hit triple digits on four days and 90 degrees or more on 38 days.

The El Nino of 1997-98 is considered about as strong as the current El Nino, which is a warming of the tropical Pacific that changes weather patterns across the U.S.

Together, those two El Nino episodes are considered the strongest on record, Miller said.

In a key region of the tropical waters, the temperature peaked 3 degrees centigrade warmer than normal last November and December. The warm water has since been dissipating.

The Climate Prediction Center is now forecasting a 75 percent chance of a cooling in the tropics, known as La Nina, by late autumn. La Nina normally causes colder and snowier conditions during winter in the Inland Northwest, so the region may see a distinct change from the relatively mild weather of the past two winters.

El Nino and La Nina records date to 1950, leaving climate scientists with insufficient data to draw firm conclusions, Miller said.

“This is one of the strongest El Ninos that has been observed,” he said.

A relatively strong El Nino in 1982-83 saw a cool July and a hot August. Another strong El Nino in 1972-73 followed the pattern of coinciding with a hot summer, Miller said.