Vince Grippi: Mariners could still create some fireworks in second half

Independence Day has always been a line of demarcation in baseball. It’s been that way since the days Babe Ruth was getting people out instead of hitting them out.

It’s may not be the halfway point, but it is always close, so it serves as a de facto one.

And being the Fourth is just a couple days away, it seemed appropriate to see where the Mariners are – and how they compare to last year.

You remember 2016, don’t you?

The Mariners season that began with little in the way of expectations, seemed stuck in second gear for much of the summer and then became a race for the postseason.

A race the M’s lost. For the umpteenth time since 2001.

If we jumped in the Wayback Machine on Sunday afternoon and set the controls for July 2, 2016, what would we have seen?

James Paxton pitching, for one thing. And pitching well – for a while. At least that hasn’t changed.

Then there was the offense, with Seth Smith (three hits) and Adam Lind (four) leading the way in a 16-hit attack.

OK, that’s changed.

But the M’s won that day, just as they did on July 2 this season.

Last year’s victory, 12-6 over the visiting Baltimore Orioles, lifted Seattle to 42-39, third place in the American League West.

The 5-3 win over the host Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim yesterday lifted the M’s to 41-42. That’s also good enough for third place in the West.

Which means what, exactly?

If last season taught us anything, it taught the wild-card spots are still in play.

Look, the M’s never had a sniff at catching Texas last year, as the Rangers were an American League-best 52-30 at this point. They finished 95-67, best in the league and nine games ahead of the second-place Mariners.

But there were some second-half surprises in the A.L. last year.

Take Boston. On July 2, the Red Sox were 43-37 and four games behind the Orioles in the East. They finished 50-32 and won the division by four games.

There was an example of the negative as well.

Kansas City, the Mariners’ opponents this week at Safeco, were 43-37 at this point in 2016 and seemed a sure bet to be part of the playoff chase. And then they weren’t.

The Royals were 38-44 from there and faded to third in the Central.

Which is a long way to say the M’s aren’t out of anything. They are in a similar position as last year, with no chance of catching the West leader (this season, Houston) and in thick of the wild-card race.

The Mariners begin today only a game-and-a-half behind in the second wild-card race, one of seven American League teams within two games north or south of the .500 mark.

Which means all that matters now is the future.

And in the most recent past, last season, the Mariners just happened to have the best record in the American League West after July 2. They won 44 of their final 81 games from there and missed the postseason by an eyelash.

Can they play that well again?

If they can stay healthy, why not?

And that’s the rub. The lineup the M’s put on the field Sunday did not include their only All-Star player, Nelson Cruz. He’s day-to-day with a knee problem.

Almost everyone else Seattle started Sunday has missed time due to injury or ineffectiveness this season, from Jean Segura’s two stints on the disabled list – he’s hit .338 when he’s played – to Mike Zunino’s seemingly annual trip to Tacoma.

Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Danny Valencia, they’ve all missed varying amounts of time.

And that doesn’t even touch on the starting pitching.

Felix Hernandez, Paxton, Drew Smyly, heck, you know the drill. It’s been an episode of “Chicago Hope” on the hill this season.

But Hernandez and Paxton are back, Ariel Miranda has been a godsend and maybe Hisashi Iwakuma can contribute before August.

If the bullpen can hold the line, there is a chance this Oct. 2 will find the Mariners in the postseason.

Unlike last year’s Oct. 2.