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Seattle Mariners

Mariners Log: 2017 Season Preview – Starting rotation

FILE - In this Feb. 15, 2017, file photo, Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez participates in a drill during spring training baseball practice in Peoria, Ariz. Hernandez is beginning his climb back from one of his toughest seasons, when he went 11-8 with a 3.82 ERA and his lowest innings total since 2007. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)
By Dave Nichols daven@spokesman.com(509) 459-5441

Often times, that final step from pretty good to playoffs is the longest one. That’s where the Seattle Mariners find themselves as they enter play for the 2017 season.

Last season brought a winning record (86-76) and a second-place finish in the division – nine games behind the Texas Rangers. The M’s were tantalizingly close, though, to the wild card game, just three games back of Baltimore and Toronto – which eventually knocked off the Rangers 3-0 in the A.L. Divisional Series before bowing to the Cleveland Indians 4-1 in the A.L. Championship Series.

Yes, the division matters most. But given the choice between being a playoff team or not, you can bet the Mariners would prefer to have “playoff team” etched next to their moniker in the record books.

It’s a subtle difference, those three games. Think about all the times a game – over the course of six months and 162 games – could go the other way. Then realize that’s how teams are judged at the end of the season. Three games separate a successful season from a disappointing one.

Regardless, the Mariners now must find a way to close that gap. Are the Rangers still nine games better than the M’s? Are the young, upcoming Houston Astros going to catch and pass Seattle before the Mariners can make their own leap? That’s what we’re about to find out over the next six months.

With that, here’s the first part of season preview, the Starting Rotation.

As with every MLB team, it all starts with the pitching.

The Mariners boast a deep, veteran rotation. If, that is, Felix Hernandez can still be the “King.” If the rest of the rotation can slot into what looks like their natural pecking order with Fernandez still doing his thing at the top, if you squint a little you can imagine this being a playoff-caliber rotation.

Hernandez put up okay numbers last year: 11-8, 3.82 ERA, 1.324 WHIP. But he needs to be more than okay for the Mariners to have a real sense of purpose. His once sterling strikeout numbers took another hit, dipping below 8.0 per nine innings for the first time in almost a decade. What’s worse? His walk rate jumped from 1.8 in 2014 to 2.6 in ’15 to an unsightly 3.8 last season. That won’t do.

True, he missed a few starts with a calf injury. But his velocity has dropped each of the past three seasons and last year he displayed a scant 3 mph difference between the fastball and changeup. He’s only 31 so he’s got time to turn into crafty veteran instead of the dominant fireballer we’ve become accustomed to. But the numbers don’t lie – he’s a different pitcher than he used to be.

James Paxton at the No. 2 took another step last season in his development and now looks capable of the things the Mariners hoped he would be when they plucked him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. Up and down over the course of four big-league seasons, the now 28-year-old lefty is in his physical prime and out of excuses to assume the mantle of rotation workhorse.

Finally called up for good in June, Paxton (6-7) made 20 starts and in 121 innings pitched to a 3.79 ERA and 1.306 WHIP while registering a career-high strikeout rate of 8.7 per nine innings and limiting walks to 1.8. His velocity and swinging strike rate support the jump in strikeouts and his ground ball tendencies should help him manage the ERA a little better going forward.

Veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.12, 1.327, 6.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9) is the No. 3. He made 33 starts in ’16 but battled nagging injuries (and Father Time) all year and saw his significant stats all go the wrong way. The Mariners hope he can hold on for one more serviceable year, though they have an option for ’18 if a return to health brings his numbers back in line. He’s at that age where it’s less likely though.

GM Jerry Dipoto was very busy over the offseason and one of his most significant moves was dealing for lefty Drew Smyly from the Tampa Bay Rays. The club hopes the 27-year-old can regain the form he showed prior to a disappointing 2016, when he saw his ERA balloon by more than a run and a half and his K rate plummet by almost two per nine innings. Before that, Smyly looked to be ascending to a place of prominence, boasting a 10.4 K/9 rate in 2015 in 12 starts. He’s got it in him – if he can stay off the disabled list.

A week before grabbing Smyly, Dipoto acquired another veteran starter, Yovani Gallardo, from the Orioles in exchange for on-base specialist Seth Smith. Gallardo, 31, spent two months on the D.L. last year with Baltimore, but he wasn’t any more effective upon his return, posting a 5.42 ERA for the season. If the Mariners can manage his innings and when he starts he can be serviceable in the fifth spot, but they’ll have to keep him on a short least.

The fallback options include righties Chris Heston and lefty Dillon Overton, acquired in separate Dipoto deals, and lefty Angel Miranda, who was sent down to AAA-Tacoma on Saturday to stay stretched out as a starter rather than go to the pen with the big club. Cody Martin (Gonzaga) and prospect Chase De Jong, acquired in yet another Dipoto offseason transaction, fill out the Tacoma rotation.