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Seattle Seahawks

Analysis: What the last four weeks of the season mean for the Seahawks and their chances of making the playoffs

Houston Texans outside linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill (51) tackles Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny (20) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, in Houston. (Associated Press)
By Bob Condotta Seattle Times

The new 17-week NFL regular season means comparisons to past seasons now come with an asterisk.

So does the addition in 2020 of a seventh playoff team in each conference.

But by most measures, this season has featured as much parity as any in recent league history.

As the NFL revealed this week, every team in the league has three or more losses through Week 14 for the first time since 2014 (a stat not impacted by either adding a game or a playoff team).

It’s also only the third time since 1978 that no team has clinched a playoff spot through Week 14 (a stat obviously impacted by the addition of another game).

It also means only four teams have been eliminated from the playoffs and only one in the NFC – 1-11-1 Detroit.

Those who remain alive include the Seahawks, who have won two in a row to improve to 5-8.

But, the reality is, Week 14 was not really a good one for the Seahawks when it came to playoff hopes because of other results around the conference.

In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Seahawks have the same chance of making the playoffs now – 3% – as they did entering the week.

One reason is that beating an AFC team didn’t help Seattle to improve what is one of its biggest issues – a 2-6 NFC conference record that is worse than any team but Detroit (the win over Houston means Seattle finishes 3-1 against the AFC South).

Wins by teams such as the 49ers (7-6) and Vikings and Saints (each 6-7) were particularly damaging, especially with the Vikings and Saints having head-to-head advantages on Seattle.

Also not helping was the Rams’ win over Arizona on Monday night. That did two things – it gave little chance that Seattle can overtake the Rams in the NFC West, and it increased the likelihood that Arizona will have something to play for when the Cardinals host the Seahawks in Glendale to end the season Jan. 9.

Though, if you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, there is a scenario where Seattle could finish second – if the Seahawks win their final four games, the Rams lose their final four, and the 49ers finish 9-8 or worse, then Seattle would win a tiebreaker due to a 3-1 head-to-head record with the two.

But that’s obviously getting way ahead of ourselves.

What Seattle has to do first is win the final four games, with 9-8 appearing the only real avenue to a playoff spot, though even that is nothing of a guarantee – The New York Times puts Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs at 9-8 at 41% regardless of other results. (As for 8-9, there are scenarios where that record could get Seattle in the playoffs, but the NYT simulator puts them 2% odds or less, depending on which of the three games Seattle would win.)

Still, that’s at least a chance, which is all coach Pete Carroll continues to say he wants each week.

“Sometimes play deteriorates during the season, particularly when you’re struggling, you’re not in the top of the heap and all that,” Carroll said after the Houston game. “But I’m really proud that we’re still moving ahead.”

Which makes it worth taking an updated look at what is ahead for the Seahawks:

Sunday at the Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season Monday night at Arizona, 30-23. But they are also dealing with a severe and increasing COVID-19 outbreak with receiver Odell Beckham Jr. one of nine new players the team placed on the reserve list Tuesday, joining four others already on the list. The betting line reflected the Rams’ sudden uncertainty as it dropped to five points at some sports books listed on VegasInsider.com Tuesday after opening at seven.

Dec. 26 vs. Chicago: The Seahawks finally passed the Bears in the NFC playoff seedings this week after Chicago fell to 4-9 after losing to the Packers Sunday night – the seventh loss in the last eight games for the Bears. Of Chicago’s four wins, two have come against Detroit. And Chicago will come to Seattle after hosting Minnesota on Monday night – the second straight team the Seahawks will play coming off a Monday night game. Seattle is already listed as a 7-point favorite, and suffice to say if the Seahawks can beat the Rams, this game presents a golden opportunity to really get back in the playoff race.

Jan. 2 vs. Detroit: And if the Seahawks can beat both the Rams and the Bears, then comes the woeful Lions, who continue to have the worst record in the NFL at 1-11-1. The Lions had been looking more competitive with a tie and two losses by three points or less before being blown out at Denver Sunday, 38-10.

Jan. 9 at Arizona: One hope for Seattle is that the Cardinals could have the No. 1 seed in the NFC wrapped up by this point and might be in a mode to rest players. But that seems less likely now with Arizona losing to the Rams Monday and now locked in a three-way tie at the top at 10-3 with Green Bay and Tampa Bay (though, due to tiebreakers, third in playoff seedings). For now, the big thing for the Seahawks is to make it relevant for themselves.