Spokane Ag Expo: Rain, cooler temperatures expected this spring in Pacific Northwest

Spring is expected to bring rain and cooler temperatures to the Pacific Northwest this year, a weather expert told farmers Tuesday at the Spokane Ag Expo and Farm Forum.

After a cold snap in February, high pressure coming from the Pacific Ocean into the U.S. will cause the desert southwest, central and southern Plains to heat up in the spring, while the Pacific Northwest will remain cooler than usual, said Art Douglas, a professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Creighton University.

“It’s going to be dry in the southwestern U.S, and into the Plains, impacting the spring wheat in that particular area as well as the winter wheat in that area,” he said.

“The only good moisture for the spring forecast is up in the Pacific Northwest, all the way along the Canadian border towards Michigan.”

“So you guys are going to be kind of the lucky folks as we go towards the spring,” Douglas continued. “My feeling is you’re going to have a pretty good turnaround with that crop because of this spring forecast.”

Many farmers in the region look forward to Douglas’ annual forecasts at the Ag Expo as they plan spring crops.

The Ag Expo, held Tuesday through Thursday, returned to an in-person conference this year, following a virtual event in 2021 due to the pandemic.

As spring gives way to summer, weather in the Pacific Northwest will continue to be cooler than normal, he said.

La Niña is predicted to persist through the summer, meaning the drought in the U.S. is likely to continue, although the interior Pacific Northwest may be a “possible exception,” he said.

La Niña is caused by a build up of cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that push the jet stream north, leading to a drier conditions in much of the Western U.S.

Douglas, who analyzes sea surface temperature anomalies going back to 1950 for potential weather patterns, thinks El Niño could develop in 2023. Douglas accurately predicted last year’s dry conditions that caused one of the worst growing seasons in recent memory.

But in 2022, Rain and cool temperatures predicted in April suggest farmers may delay planting crops in the northern half of the Corn Belt, meaning prices could go up, Douglas said.

Although May will usher in warmer temperatures, creating optimism for farmers in the Midwest, portions of the Plains, North and South Dakota and Montana are anticipated to be “bone dry,” meaning the likelihood of a “good winter wheat crop in the U.S. is very poor this year for the Plains,” Douglas said.

“So I think we’re gonna have some major problems going forward in the U.S. in terms of summer crops,” he said. “The drought extends all the way down to Texas. In fact, it’s basically taking a good chunk of the grazing lands of the United States with drought.”