NBA awards predictions: Who will win MVP, Rookie of the Year and more

The NBA’s summer of scandal and controversy is bound to linger over the start of the 2022-23 season.

When the new season officially tips off on Tuesday, the Philadelphia 76ers will visit the Boston Celtics, who will be without Coach Ime Udoka due to his suspension for an inappropriate relationship with a female co-worker. Later that night, the Los Angeles Lakers will face the Golden State Warriors, whose title defense is off to a rocky start after a video leaked of Draymond Green punching teammate Jordan Poole during a practice earlier this month. Wednesday’s slate will bring the debuts of the Brooklyn Nets, who are still recovering from Kevin Durant’s offseason trade requests, and the Phoenix Suns, who remain in limbo after disgraced owner Robert Sarver agreed to sell the franchise.

Eventually, the focus will return to the hardwood, where the Warriors and Celtics lead a deep pack of championship hopefuls. As the NBA seeks to put a messy offseason in the rearview mirror as quickly as possible, here’s an overview of the 2023 award races, which feature some familiar faces but also plenty of new blood.

MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo

The modern MVP discourse has become increasingly dominated by statistical production, and few players in history have put up numbers like Antetokounmpo’s. In each of the past four seasons, he has averaged at least 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, even though he hasn’t played more than 33 minutes a night. That consistent excellence has translated to two MVPs and third- and fourth-place finishes, and he is a near-lock to be back in the mix this season after his first normal offseason since 2019. Remember, the Bucks played deep into July during their 2021 title run.

Perhaps the biggest hang-up for Antetokounmpo is his lack of a juicy narrative: The Bucks return the same core that they have had for years, and they are unlikely to chase late-season wins or run up his playing time to land him more hardware. Sadly, routine genius often gets taken for granted by voters.

But consider the growing possibility that the masses are ready to recognize Antetokounmpo as the NBA’s marquee talent. In various interviews over the past two years, the 27-year-old Greek forward has nominated Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and LeBron James as the best player in basketball. The truth? Antetokounmpo has ascended to the top of the list because he is now more dependable and physically dominant than the elder statesmen that he reveres.

Antetokounmpo won the 2019 MVP because he was unexpectedly great and the 2020 MVP because he came back even better. This is the year for Antetokounmpo to win because he’s the best, period. James won the 2012 MVP, his third, on similar grounds, once a consensus built that he had taken the baton from the Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki generation.

Also consider: Luka Doncic averaging a triple-double without Jalen Brunson in Dallas, Joel Embiid breaking through with some help from Philadelphia’s improved supporting cast and Jayson Tatum getting brownie points for pulling a loaded Boston roster through its coaching transition.

Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo

Expect another wide-open race after voters bucked convention last season by making Boston’s Marcus Smart the first guard to win the award since 1996. This year’s field has been thinned by injuries to Celtics forward Robert Williams III and Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr., and Green has serious work to do to repair his reputation following his inexplicable preseason fisticuffs.

Adebayo is an intriguing name because he’s an established interior force for a defensive-minded Miami team that will lean more heavily on him after losing P.J. Tucker this summer. The 25-year-old big man has the athleticism, versatility and intensity needed in the modern game, and he ranked among the league’s leaders in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus while averaging a double-double last season. If the Heat can recover from a shaky summer by posting a top-five defense during another 50-win season, Adebayo’s importance will be impossible to deny.

Also consider: Rudy Gobert finding a way to transform Minnesota into a two-way powerhouse and Evan Mobley leaping into the conversation with a breakout second season in Cleveland.

Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero

Last year’s photo finish between Scottie Barnes and Mobley could give way to a Banchero blowout. A polished and well-built scoring forward who will be cast as Orlando’s No. 1 option, the 2022 top overall pick will probably enjoy far more touches, shots and closing opportunities than any of his draft classmates.

Those count as huge advantages in this race, and Banchero’s impact should be easy to gauge given that the Magic’s dreadful offense ranked 29th in 2021-22. His chief competition won’t come from the very top of the draft order: No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren is out for the season due to a foot injury, and No. 3 pick Jabari Smith Jr. pencils in as a complementary scorer out of the gate for Houston.

Also consider: Keegan Murray boosting Sacramento into the West’s play-in with high-IQ contributions and high-efficiency outside shooting and Bennedict Mathurin stuffing the stat sheet with a green light during Indiana’s rebuild.

Most Improved Player: Zion Williamson

Rather than rewarding role players for surprising midcareer breakouts, voters have turned this into the “Rising Star” award. In fact, the last MIP winner who has never made an all-star team was CJ McCollum in 2016. With that trend in mind, Williamson’s comeback from a seasonlong foot injury could be too enticing for voters to resist.

The 22-year-old big man averaged 27 points per game and established himself as one of the league’s most dominant paint scorers in his last healthy season, and his forceful, highflying style is a magnet for media and fans alike. The Pelicans have made moves to improve his supporting cast – including a trade for McCollum – and a sharp rise in the standings would further help Williamson’s cause, a la Ja Morant and the upstart Grizzlies last year.

Also consider: Anthony Edwards making the all-star leap in Minnesota and Cade Cunningham morphing into “Luka Light” for Detroit.

Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Poole

Poole, like last year’s winner Tyler Herro, is a prototypical candidate by virtue of being a high-volume scorer who can handle the ball, shoot from deep and get hot in a hurry. There’s a silkiness to Poole’s off-the-dribble moves that even Herro lacks, and the Michigan product will benefit from lots of national television exposure because he plays for the defending champions.

In a weird way, Green’s practice punch might actually help Poole’s candidacy by shining a bigger light on his game and character. If the Warriors keep winning and Poole’s role grows, his professionalism will garner serious praise. The biggest potential hiccup is Poole’s eligibility for the award, as he made 51 starts last season and can serve as a fill-in for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson when they are resting or injured.

Also consider: Bones Hyland for doing his best Poole impression in Denver and steady guard Malcolm Brogdon for sacrificing a starting role to chase a title with Boston.